Robert J. Samuelson: Public Opinion and Muddled Policies (what if we're to blame?)
"Towering over Presidents and [Congress] . . . public opinion stands out, in the United States, as the great source of power, the master of servants who tremble before it."
-- James Bryce, "The American Commonwealth," 1888
The problem of American democracy is (of course) democracy. We are on the cusp of an election that commentators have already imbued with vast significance if Democrats recapture part or all of Congress -- or if they don't. But here's something that no one's saying: Regardless of who wins, it won't make much difference for most of our pressing problems. We won't have a major new budget policy, energy policy or immigration policy. The election might not even much affect the Iraq war.
In many ways, the election doesn't matter, and all the hoopla is an exercise in delusional hype. We could blame the prospect of divided government or a bipartisan leadership vacuum; both might promote paralysis. But the deeper cause is public opinion. As Bryce saw, our politicians are slaves to public opinion. Superficially, this should be reassuring. Democracy is working, because public attitudes remain the dominant influence -- not "big money" or "special interests," as many believe.
But it is not reassuring. The trouble is that public opinion is often ignorant, confused and contradictory; and so the policies it produces are often ignorant, confused and contradictory -- which means they're ineffective. The Catch-22 of American democracy is this: A government that mirrors public opinion offends public opinion by failing to do what it promises. People then conclude that the system has "failed."
The election is rightly seen as a referendum on the war. In late 2003, 67 percent of Americans thought that President Bush's invasion was the "right decision," reports the Pew Research Center; only 26 percent thought it the "wrong decision." Now views are split, 43 percent "right" and 47 percent "wrong." But it's public opinion, not the election outcome, that matters for policy. Indeed, it explains why the Democrats lack a unified position on Iraq.
Suppose that the Democrats retook Congress but that the situation in Iraq -- and public opinion -- improved. Then, Democrats would look foolish if they'd promoted a quick withdrawal. Now suppose that the Republicans kept control of Congress and that the situation in Iraq -- and public opinion -- worsened. Then, the pressure on Bush from Republicans to pull back would intensify. Either way, public opinion governs.
Aside from being fickle, public opinion also marches in many directions at once....
Facing such inconsistencies, how can government make sensible policy? Not easily.
Occasionally presidents and congresses get a free pass -- some crisis or event fosters national unity. Bush had such a moment after Sept. 11; Lyndon Johnson had one after John F. Kennedy's assassination; Franklin Roosevelt had one in his first 100 days. Otherwise, politicians can deal with public opinion in three ways: Ignore it, change it or pander to it. Politicians who choose the first often become ex-politicians. The second is hard; among recent presidents, Ronald Reagan did it best. The easiest course is to pander....
Read entire article at WaPo
-- James Bryce, "The American Commonwealth," 1888
The problem of American democracy is (of course) democracy. We are on the cusp of an election that commentators have already imbued with vast significance if Democrats recapture part or all of Congress -- or if they don't. But here's something that no one's saying: Regardless of who wins, it won't make much difference for most of our pressing problems. We won't have a major new budget policy, energy policy or immigration policy. The election might not even much affect the Iraq war.
In many ways, the election doesn't matter, and all the hoopla is an exercise in delusional hype. We could blame the prospect of divided government or a bipartisan leadership vacuum; both might promote paralysis. But the deeper cause is public opinion. As Bryce saw, our politicians are slaves to public opinion. Superficially, this should be reassuring. Democracy is working, because public attitudes remain the dominant influence -- not "big money" or "special interests," as many believe.
But it is not reassuring. The trouble is that public opinion is often ignorant, confused and contradictory; and so the policies it produces are often ignorant, confused and contradictory -- which means they're ineffective. The Catch-22 of American democracy is this: A government that mirrors public opinion offends public opinion by failing to do what it promises. People then conclude that the system has "failed."
The election is rightly seen as a referendum on the war. In late 2003, 67 percent of Americans thought that President Bush's invasion was the "right decision," reports the Pew Research Center; only 26 percent thought it the "wrong decision." Now views are split, 43 percent "right" and 47 percent "wrong." But it's public opinion, not the election outcome, that matters for policy. Indeed, it explains why the Democrats lack a unified position on Iraq.
Suppose that the Democrats retook Congress but that the situation in Iraq -- and public opinion -- improved. Then, Democrats would look foolish if they'd promoted a quick withdrawal. Now suppose that the Republicans kept control of Congress and that the situation in Iraq -- and public opinion -- worsened. Then, the pressure on Bush from Republicans to pull back would intensify. Either way, public opinion governs.
Aside from being fickle, public opinion also marches in many directions at once....
Facing such inconsistencies, how can government make sensible policy? Not easily.
Occasionally presidents and congresses get a free pass -- some crisis or event fosters national unity. Bush had such a moment after Sept. 11; Lyndon Johnson had one after John F. Kennedy's assassination; Franklin Roosevelt had one in his first 100 days. Otherwise, politicians can deal with public opinion in three ways: Ignore it, change it or pander to it. Politicians who choose the first often become ex-politicians. The second is hard; among recent presidents, Ronald Reagan did it best. The easiest course is to pander....