Joel Kotkin: A Nation of 400 million and counting
[Mr. Kotkin, an Irvine senior fellow at the New America Foundation, is writing a book about the American future.]
The fact that the U.S. population will soon top 300 million has led some environmentalists to gnash their teeth over the nation's ability to handle our expanded "ecological footprint." One can also imagine that few champagne bottles are being popped in Parisian salons.
And there's even worse news ahead for those who hate the notion of numerous Americans: By 2050 there will be 400 million of us. This surge marks a major watershed in our history, recreating the American Republic and leaving us with unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.
* * *
Today, the U.S. stands out as the only leading industrial power -- over time India could prove the other -- with a surging population. Due to immigration and higher birth rates, the U.S. population is now growing two to three times faster than South Korea's and Britain's, and also far faster than China's. Our other major competitors, such as Russia, Japan and Germany, are either demographically stagnant or are already about to start losing population.
These demographic changes are remarkable. At the height of the Cold War, the former Soviet Union was more populous than the U.S. In 2050 the remnant of that empire, the Russian Republic, will have barely one-third to one-fourth the population of the U.S. Taken together, our greatest rivals of the 20th century -- Germany, Japan and Russia -- are projected to eventually have 130 million fewer people than we do. Even as the European community expands eastwards, virtually the entire region suffers low birthrates, including many of the former Soviet Bloc countries such as Bulgaria and Estonia. By 2050 the entire European Union -- without the addition of Muslim Turkey -- will have a largely aging population of less than 450 million.
This shift in population trends will directly impact these countries' bottom lines -- from the growth of the work force to consumption patterns -- while putting unprecedented stress on pension and health systems. The U.S. will also be aging, but it will still be a relative spring chicken compared to the likes of Germany, Japan, South Korea and Italy. By 2050, roughly one-third of the population in these countries will be over 65, compared to around one-fifth in the U.S.
These population dynamics are also likely to create different attitudes between Americans and our competitors. As fewer Italians, Germans, Japanese, Koreans and Russians have families -- in one recent survey half of Italian women 16 to 24 said they want no children -- there is likely to be a continued shift away from traditional concerns about future generations. A nation of aging, childless adults -- some without nieces, nephews or even siblings -- is less likely to act like responsible adults, whose primary concerns center on the fate of their offspring and their offspring's offspring....
Read entire article at WSJ
The fact that the U.S. population will soon top 300 million has led some environmentalists to gnash their teeth over the nation's ability to handle our expanded "ecological footprint." One can also imagine that few champagne bottles are being popped in Parisian salons.
And there's even worse news ahead for those who hate the notion of numerous Americans: By 2050 there will be 400 million of us. This surge marks a major watershed in our history, recreating the American Republic and leaving us with unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.
* * *
Today, the U.S. stands out as the only leading industrial power -- over time India could prove the other -- with a surging population. Due to immigration and higher birth rates, the U.S. population is now growing two to three times faster than South Korea's and Britain's, and also far faster than China's. Our other major competitors, such as Russia, Japan and Germany, are either demographically stagnant or are already about to start losing population.
These demographic changes are remarkable. At the height of the Cold War, the former Soviet Union was more populous than the U.S. In 2050 the remnant of that empire, the Russian Republic, will have barely one-third to one-fourth the population of the U.S. Taken together, our greatest rivals of the 20th century -- Germany, Japan and Russia -- are projected to eventually have 130 million fewer people than we do. Even as the European community expands eastwards, virtually the entire region suffers low birthrates, including many of the former Soviet Bloc countries such as Bulgaria and Estonia. By 2050 the entire European Union -- without the addition of Muslim Turkey -- will have a largely aging population of less than 450 million.
This shift in population trends will directly impact these countries' bottom lines -- from the growth of the work force to consumption patterns -- while putting unprecedented stress on pension and health systems. The U.S. will also be aging, but it will still be a relative spring chicken compared to the likes of Germany, Japan, South Korea and Italy. By 2050, roughly one-third of the population in these countries will be over 65, compared to around one-fifth in the U.S.
These population dynamics are also likely to create different attitudes between Americans and our competitors. As fewer Italians, Germans, Japanese, Koreans and Russians have families -- in one recent survey half of Italian women 16 to 24 said they want no children -- there is likely to be a continued shift away from traditional concerns about future generations. A nation of aging, childless adults -- some without nieces, nephews or even siblings -- is less likely to act like responsible adults, whose primary concerns center on the fate of their offspring and their offspring's offspring....