The Coronavirus Is Here to Stay, So What Happens Next?

In the last few days, most Americans, even President Trump, have come to terms with the need for social distancing. Though they feel fine, they are staying home and developing new routines — killing time baking, binge-watching, figuring out how to home-school their kids. It took far too long for Americans to accept how serious the coronavirus is. Now that we’ve finally taken the necessary measures in many places to close schools, offices, restaurants and other businesses, people are asking: How soon will it all be over? Two weeks? Four weeks? When can we go back to normal?

Unfortunately, normal is a long way off. We need to be thinking in terms of months, not weeks. We need to stop picturing that ubiquitous “flatten the curve” chart and start imagining a roller coaster.

Social distancing works. As China, South Korea and other countries have demonstrated, it is possible to slow the spread of the virus and limit how many people are infected at one time. This will keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients, so that those who are sick can be treated competently and compassionately. It will also give researchers time to work on developing vaccines and medications that could reduce the severity of the virus and save lives.

No one knows for sure how long social distancing will have to last to reduce the spread to near zero. But if South Korea and China are appropriate exemplars, we’ll need to stay apart now for at least eight weeks, and maybe more. China locked down Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province on Jan. 23. Today, provincial officials are reporting few or no new cases of the virus. Just a few days ago, they closed the last of their 16 makeshift emergency hospitals. Consequently, restrictions are easing. Schools and offices are slowly opening. People are beginning to go out and see other people.