Keith Suter: The Age Of Oil
As petrol prices remain sky-high, KEITH SUTER reports on a prophet of doom's early warning
Is today's high price of oil proof of a warning given half a century ago that the world would start to run out of oil by this time? The warning, by American scientist Dr Marion King Hubbert, was largely ignored at the time, but now, 16 years after his death, it's attracting much interest.
Historians looking back over the past 150 years will call this the Age of Oil. Oil meets 40 per cent of the world's energy needs and nearly 90 per cent of transport needs. Oil is also important for fertiliser, DVDs, rubber, plastics and metals.
The US remains the biggest consumer but it's no longer the top producer; in fact it has gone from being the top producer to the top importer. American motorists consume nearly half the world's daily supply of oil.
China is now the second-biggest consumer, taking Japan's position. The dramatic growth of the Chinese economy makes it difficult to predict global oil demand. India and other Asian countries are also rapidly industrialising.
Debate over how quickly oil is being exhausted is focused on the "Hubbert Peak". According to this theory, oil production reaches a peak where about half the supply of the find is used, after which production becomes more difficult.
There is a difference between actually running out of oil and no longer finding oil at the same rate as it's being extracted. This is like getting apples off a tree -- there may be apples right at the top but would you want to take all the effort to get there?
Hubbert, a Shell geologist, proposed this theory in 1956. He predicted that US oil production would peak about 1970 (he was proved right) and global output would peak in 1995 (he got that wrong).
...
Hubbert was born in Texas on October 5, 1903. He excelled at university and spent most of his career in the oil industry. He was a brilliant scientist but his colleagues thought him short-tempered and abrasive.
...
He was controversial because most members of the oil industry couldn't believe that the age of oil would end so quickly. The world's first oil wells were in the US and Canada in 1859-60. In 1880, German engineer Nicholas Otto invented the internal combustion engine. Five years later, Karl Benz of Germany built the first car to be powered by an internal-combustion engine. The world's love affair with oil was under way.
But by 1956 Hubbert was already predicting the end of the oil era. Now scientists and financiers fear he may have been right after all.
Is today's high price of oil proof of a warning given half a century ago that the world would start to run out of oil by this time? The warning, by American scientist Dr Marion King Hubbert, was largely ignored at the time, but now, 16 years after his death, it's attracting much interest.
Historians looking back over the past 150 years will call this the Age of Oil. Oil meets 40 per cent of the world's energy needs and nearly 90 per cent of transport needs. Oil is also important for fertiliser, DVDs, rubber, plastics and metals.
The US remains the biggest consumer but it's no longer the top producer; in fact it has gone from being the top producer to the top importer. American motorists consume nearly half the world's daily supply of oil.
China is now the second-biggest consumer, taking Japan's position. The dramatic growth of the Chinese economy makes it difficult to predict global oil demand. India and other Asian countries are also rapidly industrialising.
Debate over how quickly oil is being exhausted is focused on the "Hubbert Peak". According to this theory, oil production reaches a peak where about half the supply of the find is used, after which production becomes more difficult.
There is a difference between actually running out of oil and no longer finding oil at the same rate as it's being extracted. This is like getting apples off a tree -- there may be apples right at the top but would you want to take all the effort to get there?
Hubbert, a Shell geologist, proposed this theory in 1956. He predicted that US oil production would peak about 1970 (he was proved right) and global output would peak in 1995 (he got that wrong).
...
Hubbert was born in Texas on October 5, 1903. He excelled at university and spent most of his career in the oil industry. He was a brilliant scientist but his colleagues thought him short-tempered and abrasive.
...
He was controversial because most members of the oil industry couldn't believe that the age of oil would end so quickly. The world's first oil wells were in the US and Canada in 1859-60. In 1880, German engineer Nicholas Otto invented the internal combustion engine. Five years later, Karl Benz of Germany built the first car to be powered by an internal-combustion engine. The world's love affair with oil was under way.
But by 1956 Hubbert was already predicting the end of the oil era. Now scientists and financiers fear he may have been right after all.