Trump and Sanders Test Economic Model Predicting a G.O.P. WinBreaking News
tags: election 2016, Bernie Sanders, Trump
If this were anything like a normal year, the Republicans would be favored to take the White House. That, at least, is what Ray Fair’s economic model has been saying consistently since November 2014.
Mr. Fair, a professor of economics at Yale and the author of “Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,” also says his model may well be wrong about this election. “Each election has weird things in it, yet the model usually works pretty well,” he said. “This year, though, I don’t know. This year really could be different.”
Professor Fair has been tracking and predicting elections in real time since 1978 with a good deal of success, using an approach that continues to be provocative. He ruthlessly excludes nearly all the details that are the basic diet of conventional political analysts — items like the burning issues of the day, the identities, personalities and speeches of the candidates and the strength of their campaign organizations. In fact, his model pays no attention whatsoever to the day-to-day fireworks of the political campaigns.
comments powered by Disqus
- Which is the greatest 'witch hunt' in US political history?
- A Fake Site Posted an Apology for the Mormon Church’s History of Racism
- Republicans Escalate Bitter Fight Over Judicial Nominations
- ‘Bigger Than Watergate’? Both Sides Say Yes, but for Different Reasons
- Is Trump the Second Coming of Reagan?
- When did the Census begin to ask about citizenship?
- As historians and New York City educators, here’s what we hope teachers hear in New York City's new anti-bias training
- Historian's new book backs Taika Waititi's claims New Zealand is 'racist as f**k’
- Howard M. Sachar, GWU scholar and ‘trailblazer’ of Jewish history, dies at 90
- Bernard Lewis, eminent historian of the Middle East, dies at 101