The Moody’s Analytics presidential election model has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980. And it indicates a Democrat will win in 2016.

Moody’s newly released analysis for the next election, titled “A Nail-Biter in 2016,” predicts that the Democratic nominee for president will win with exactly 270 votes from the U.S. Electoral College — the minimum amount required to win.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is forecast to earn 268 votes.

Moody’s model does not predict which candidate will win, only which political party.