Victor Kotsev: Syria between Hama 1982 and Lebanon
Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst.
Recent talks between the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the rebels appear to have hit a hard spot. The Egyptian peace initiative is on the rocks after the failure of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to show up; various other efforts continue but the Emir of Qatar conveyed his pessimism poignantly on Tuesday by calling for an Arab military intervention in the country at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
Though it is also remotely possible that this is the proverbial darkest moment before dawn breaks - the latest developments can also be interpreted as tough bargaining - what is happening on the ground is far from encouraging.
Amid a major terror campaign in the capital, Damascus, and some of the bloodiest fighting of the conflict so far, the chaos in the country is growing by the day. Different militias and warlords are mushrooming, indicating that a failure to stop the violence now would result in a protracted conflict that will end only when all the different sides are completely exhausted from the bloodshed.
Parallels to the Lebanese civil war - which the Emir of Qatar invoked in his speech - are becoming ever more pronounced, as are similarities with the violence that culminated in the massacre in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982...