Joshua Spivack: What to Expect When You're Expecting a Recall -- Wisconsin Gubernatorial/Legislative edition

Joshua Spivack is Senior Fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College.

June 5 is D-Day for the recall. Governor Scott Walker, currently leading in the polls, is facing off against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch is facing firefighter union leader Mahlon Mitchell. Four Republican state Senates seats are up -- three are recall votes, one is replacing a Senator who resigned instead of facing a recall. These aren't the only recalls taking place on Tuesday -- there will be at least 17 recalls nationwide -- but they are by far the most prominent.

The Wisconsin recall could have national ramifications for the 2012 election and beyond. If Walker wins, the Democrats and the unions are facing a potential serious backlash in November in a state that they certainly want to win (despite the political chatter and my own best interests, I doubt that the impact will be much beyond Wisconsin). Well, I could say I don't want to say I told you so, but obviously I'd be lying. Here's my early warning oped from last year about the dangers of the recall and here's my more recent article.

Of course, I have a history of being wrong about stuff like this. More important than my guesses, predictions and opinions are the facts. So let's take the deep dive in and check out the background, history and facts on the use of the recall and what it means for June 5 and beyond:....

No future, no future for you?
Another big question that I'm constantly asked: Will we see a cycle of recall revenge? Who knows. I remember similar questions after Gray Davis was recalled, and in fact this has been a constant warning cry of recall opponents since the recall was first adopted over a century ago.

Now, there have been examples of repeated recall fights. A county in Michigan has had 340 recall threats filed in 20 years. In Alliance, Nebraska in 1987-88, there were two mayors recalled in 37 days, and then the replacement (for the $575 a year job) faced a third recall threat. But their aren't too many of them out there, and certainly none on the state level (I don't consider the 1995 California fight to rank).

However, I think we will see the recall continue to expand, as voters realize that "hey, I can use that thing" and try to take out vulnerable incumbents on their own (or with party or interest group backing). The recall is finally having its moment in the sun, and it doesn't look like it wants to relinquish the spotlight so quickly....