Harry J Enten: What Are the Chances of a Bush/Gore-style Tie in 2012?
Harry J Enten blogs about political and electoral statistics at Margin of Error.
It's the election night scenario some fear: one candidate wins the popular vote, while the other wins the electoral college. Our founding fathers in their genius or lack thereof decided against Americans directly electing their presidents. As Al Gore learned, a popular vote victory without a coinciding electoral college win is worthless.
There have been efforts to end, or at least to limit, the electoral college through such proposals the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. But the system remains in place.
When you glance at the electoral vote dashboards of HuffPollster and Real Clear Politics, you might believe that there is a high probability of another 2000. Barack Obama seemingly holds a large edge in the electoral college vote – even as Mitt Romney closes in on him nationally.
But we shouldn't rush to assumptions about dead heats and tied results yet...