Michael Barone: Presidential Scenarios ... Will 2012 Be Like 2000, 1988, Or 1964?

Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.

Last week, I wrote about the standings in the presidential race and said it looked like a long, hard slog through about a dozen clearly identified target states, much like the contests in 2000 and 2004. Call that the 2000/2004 long, hard slog scenario.

But I also said there were other possible scenarios. I can think of three.

The 1964/1972 scenario: Challenger disqualifies himself. Barry Goldwater and George McGovern were idealistic, intelligent senators who took positions on issues that made them unacceptable to most voters in years favorable to incumbents.

This could happen to Mitt Romney this year...