Victor Cha: Kim’s Death is Watershed Moment for North Korea

Victor Cha is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).and professor at Georgetown University. He was director of Asian affairs at the White House from 2004-07. His book, The Impossible State: North Korea’s Past and Future, will be published in 2012.

Until this weekend, any expert assessment inside or outside the US government would have stated that the most likely scenario for a collapse of the North Korean regime would be the sudden death of the isolated leader Kim Jong-il. After Monday’s revelation by North Korea’s state television, we now face that uncertain scenario.

This is a watershed moment. It is not at all clear that the plan to hand power to Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-eun, can be carried out successfully. Kim Jong-il had 14 years to prepare to take over from his father, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994. Kim Jong-eun has had just three years since his father had a stroke. He is not even 30 years old.

He has had little preparation in cultivating his own followers. He has no new ideology to associate with his rise to power. I could not think of less ideal conditions – in a North Korean context – under which the so-called "Great Successor" could be given the reins of power. The plan was to surround Jong-eun with elders, including Kim Jong-il’s sister, Kim Kyong-hui.

Now, however, there are rumours that Kyong-hui is also unwell. This leaves the young son and his uncle, Chang Sung-taek, Kim Kyong-hu’s husband, which is not exactly the dream team to lead the North out of its morass...