Fawaz A Gerges: The Irresistible Rise of the Muslim Brothers
Fawaz A Gerges is director of the Middle East Centre and professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. His most recent book is The Rise and Fall of al-Qaeda (OUP USA, £15.99).
Since the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak in February, a political struggle has raged in Egypt along ideological, generational and class lines. The fall of the authoritarian wall, built more than half a century ago, has led to a reawakening, a revival of mass politics and social mobilisation. In this context, although initially welcomed as saviours, Egypt's military rulers have miscalculated monstrously by resisting the transition to civilian rule and tightening their grip on power. Tens of thousands of Egyptians have risen in revolt against the military council in recent days, sending a clear message about the changed mood and the psychology of the people. At the same time, after decades of being outlawed and persecuted, religious activists, or Islamists, have emerged above ground as a pivotal force, openly mobilising their old supporters, who number in the millions, and recruiting new members.
Of all the Islamist groups, the Muslim Brotherhood has the broadest base, with a membership of about half a million and a formidable political machine. Founded in 1928, the organisation did not participate actively in the protests that drove Mubarak from power, but it has mobilised its followers ever since in a newly formed political party, Freedom and Justice. Positioning itself as a voice for the poor, a huge constituency representing almost half of Egypt's 82 million people, the Brotherhood aims to win 40 per cent of the seats in parliamentary elections scheduled to begin on 28 November. Whatever the outcome, the Brotherhood will be a dominant player in post-Mubarak Egypt and will shape the country's domestic and international relations.
The Muslim Brotherhood's chance of gaining a majority of seats in the new assembly has alarmed Egyptian liberals and minorities and secularists, who fear that the organisation will impose rigid, regressive religious laws on society. They accuse the Muslim Brothers of paying lip-service to democratic principle and of plotting to hijack the secular state and replace it with sharia-based rule.
The secular-religious divide is the most fundamental fault line in Egyptian politics, and it is one that threatens the transition from authoritarianism to pluralism. Deeply suspicious of Islamist parties' commitment to plurality, the secularists have called on Egypt's military rulers to put in place safeguards to limit the clout of their ideological rivals, in case they should triumph at the ballot box. They want guarantees that a new constitution will ensure freedoms of religion and expression.
When the Brotherhood's political and charitable machine launched Millioniyyat al-Khayr (the million-man act of goodwill) to provide 1.5 million kilograms of discounted meat to five million Egyptians for Eid ul-Adha, the Feast of Sacrifice, early this month, it was denounced as vote-buying using foreign funding. Egyptian liberals have accused Gulf states, in particular Qatar, of secretly funding Islamists to spread their brand of conservative religion to the most populous Arab state, and the region's capital of cultural production. In pitting themselves against the Islamist parties, liberals (represented by the Egyptian Bloc alliance) risk alienating a society that is deeply religious. As with their Tunisian counterparts, they will find it difficult to attract voters who do not already identify with their cosmopolitan world-view. At the centre of the current revolt against the military council - which will most likely play into the Brotherhood's electoral strategy - lies that same secular-religious divide. As Egyptians battled the police and the army this month, the Brotherhood issued a direct challenge to liberals. "Will you respect the will of the people or will you turn against it?" And: "Your credibility is now on the line."
Western powers are just as anxious about the rise of the Brotherhood to power, if not more so...