Tariq Alhomayed: The Syrian Army: Will History Repeat Itself?

The writer is Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was first published on Nov. 14, 2011

Here I do not necessarily mean a traditional military coup, but could the Syrian army walk in the footsteps of its Tunisian counterpart which expelled Ben Ali, or the Egyptian army which refused to stand with Mubarak against the people? Which path will the Syrian army choose?

Of course there are other, completely different paths that the army could go down; like what the Libyan commander entrusted [by Gaddafi] with guarding Tripoli did, when he surrendered and opened the city gates the moment the Libyan rebels arrived. There are also other, more treacherous roads to go down, like what some of those who cooperated with Saddam Hussein’s men did, before the US occupation. Of course, to talk about the position of the Syrian army now is not mere speculation, especially after the Arab League formally addressed it, in a rare step as part of its recent statement towards Syria, the third clause of which “calls upon the Syrian Arab Army not to engage in acts of violence and murder against civilians”. This call in itself can be interpreted as an Arab indication to the Syrian army that the Arab League is counting on it to protect the Syrians from al-Assad’s regime. Here the Arabs are addressing the army in a way that suggests it is independent of the al-Assad regime. This also indicates that the Arabs have begun to prepare for the post al-Assad phase, and that they may welcome the army undertaking a coup against the regime. But the question here is: Will the Syrian army do it?