Shashank Joshi: A Conflict Haunted by Echoes of the Past

The writer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute.

When Syrian tanks stormed Hama at dawn, they swept through like haunting echoes of the forces that destroyed the city in 1982.

On that occasion, several hundred times as many residents perished. Bashar al-Assad has not yet penetrated Hama’s centre, as his father did nearly thirty years ago, but his army’s loyalty suggests that it has every chance of doing so.

The Assad dynasty’s strength is rooted in decisions taken long ago by the occupying French, who built up Syria's Alawite sect after the First World War as a counterweight to the Ottoman-backed Sunni majority. Alawite officers dominated the military from the 1960s, seizing power in coups in the latter part of the decade. They built up a cohesive and sprawling military and intelligence apparatus – pitiful against Israel, but lethally efficient against Syrians. 

Syria has therefore followed an entirely different trajectory than Libya or Egypt. Its army is neither fractured (like Gaddfi’s) nor independent (like Mubarak’s), and is therefore both able and willing to act with overwhelming force against compatriots...