Steve Kornacki: How a One-Term President is Made

Steve Kornacki is Salon's news editor. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki

Republicans hope to unseat President Obama next year with a message that goes something like this: He inherited a bad economy and made it worse, squandered hundreds of billions of dollars on a stimulus program that didn't create jobs, and blew a massive hole in the deficit that sapped the private sector's confidence.

You can make yourself crazy pointing out how flimsy these arguments are, but the swing voters who will decide the 2012 election won't be relying on a measured analysis of the logic of each party's case to make up their minds. It's the state of the economy that will dictate their verdict. If they perceive it to be improving, they will reject the GOP's claims about Obama's "failed" economic stewardship. But if they believe it is stagnant or getting worse, the GOP line will be music to their ears.

Which is why the new unemployment data released Friday morning is so devastating for Obama. As Andrew Leonard noted already, the numbers themselves -- a 9.2 percent unemployment rate and almost nonexistent job creation for June -- are truly awful. But what's worse for Obama is whatever job creation momentum seemed to exist a few months ago is now completely gone. Joblessness is again rising, with no indication that a significant downward trend is on the horizon. And the idea of a new, meaningful stimulus program before the 2012 election has been off the table since last November, when Republicans won control of the House. It's looking more and more likely that unemployment will remain above eight percent -- perhaps well above eight percent -- between now and Election Day 2012....