Andrew Rawnsley: Instead of fearing another Iraq, the west must do right by Libya
[Andrew Rawnsley is the Observer's award-winning chief political commentator.]
Discussing with me what might be done to stop Colonel Gaddafi from slaughtering his people, a minister sighed: "It is all very difficult." So it is. How will it be done? Who will do it? On what authority? None of the diplomatic and military questions swirling around this crisis resolve into easy answers. But behind them all looms one big, inescapable and very stark question: are we prepared to let the colonel prevail? Here is the bottom line: will the west sit on its hands as Gaddafi attempts to extend his tyranny into a fifth decade by massacring those who have risen up for freedom?
When Libya first erupted against its dictator, Barack Obama, David Cameron and the rest of the soi-disant leaders of the free world appeared to enjoy the good fortune of avoiding that choice. It looked as though the Libyan people were on the brink of disposing of their tyrant without the need for outside assistance. Town after town fell to the rebels. Significant elements of the armed forces peeled away. Airforce pilots chose to ditch their planes or fly them to Malta rather than follow the tottering regime's orders to bomb the uprising. Western governments that had previously canoodled with the colonel were emboldened to announce freezes of the regime's assets. Gaddafi seemed bound to join Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt at Duntorturin' or some other retirement home for deposed despots. Or he would be caught and tried for his crimes against humanity. Or he would be dead. David Cameron told MPs that it was "unthinkable" that the colonel-tyrant could remain in power.
Well, now the prime minister and his international peer group are having to think the unthinkable. Gaddafi has launched a ferocious counter-offensive and it is making rapid progress against the forces of freedom. Without external intervention, this is a battle he is very likely to win when it is an unfair fight between rebels with rifles and a dictator armed with mercenaries, tanks and warplanes. In the words of one senior figure at No 10: "We are in a race against time." The choice that the west didn't want to have to confront is upon us. Some still don't want to face it. The Nato summit last Thursday broke up with planning of military options under way but no agreement on their implementation. The meeting of the European Council on Friday was palpably divided. Rather a lot of the British political class has indulged itself in essentially parochial wittering. We have all had good sport at the expense of the pratfalls of the Foreign Office. We have had more fun hooting about the Special Forces team which surrendered to a crack squad of Libyan farmers. We have debated ad nauseam whether Prince Andrew is a fool or an idiot. Westminster has buzzed with gossip about who last saw William Hague's misplaced "mojo" and which of his cabinet colleagues might be scheming for his job. The antics of the Queen's second son and cod-Freudian analysis of the foreign secretary's political libido are interesting in their way, but this is displacement activity, another way of deflecting the question: so what are we going to do?
The Obama administration, without whom no meaningful intervention is feasible, is divided and emitting conflicting signals. Nicolas Sarkozy has tried to cover his country's corrupt embrace of dictatorships in the past with the present flamboyance of giving unilateral official recognition to the rebels' transitional council. The Germans have been relatively consistent; consistent in their unwillingness to contemplate doing anything substantial to prevent Gaddafi from butchering his own people.
Some of these dilations are a legacy of the Iraq war...
Read entire article at Observer (UK)
Discussing with me what might be done to stop Colonel Gaddafi from slaughtering his people, a minister sighed: "It is all very difficult." So it is. How will it be done? Who will do it? On what authority? None of the diplomatic and military questions swirling around this crisis resolve into easy answers. But behind them all looms one big, inescapable and very stark question: are we prepared to let the colonel prevail? Here is the bottom line: will the west sit on its hands as Gaddafi attempts to extend his tyranny into a fifth decade by massacring those who have risen up for freedom?
When Libya first erupted against its dictator, Barack Obama, David Cameron and the rest of the soi-disant leaders of the free world appeared to enjoy the good fortune of avoiding that choice. It looked as though the Libyan people were on the brink of disposing of their tyrant without the need for outside assistance. Town after town fell to the rebels. Significant elements of the armed forces peeled away. Airforce pilots chose to ditch their planes or fly them to Malta rather than follow the tottering regime's orders to bomb the uprising. Western governments that had previously canoodled with the colonel were emboldened to announce freezes of the regime's assets. Gaddafi seemed bound to join Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt at Duntorturin' or some other retirement home for deposed despots. Or he would be caught and tried for his crimes against humanity. Or he would be dead. David Cameron told MPs that it was "unthinkable" that the colonel-tyrant could remain in power.
Well, now the prime minister and his international peer group are having to think the unthinkable. Gaddafi has launched a ferocious counter-offensive and it is making rapid progress against the forces of freedom. Without external intervention, this is a battle he is very likely to win when it is an unfair fight between rebels with rifles and a dictator armed with mercenaries, tanks and warplanes. In the words of one senior figure at No 10: "We are in a race against time." The choice that the west didn't want to have to confront is upon us. Some still don't want to face it. The Nato summit last Thursday broke up with planning of military options under way but no agreement on their implementation. The meeting of the European Council on Friday was palpably divided. Rather a lot of the British political class has indulged itself in essentially parochial wittering. We have all had good sport at the expense of the pratfalls of the Foreign Office. We have had more fun hooting about the Special Forces team which surrendered to a crack squad of Libyan farmers. We have debated ad nauseam whether Prince Andrew is a fool or an idiot. Westminster has buzzed with gossip about who last saw William Hague's misplaced "mojo" and which of his cabinet colleagues might be scheming for his job. The antics of the Queen's second son and cod-Freudian analysis of the foreign secretary's political libido are interesting in their way, but this is displacement activity, another way of deflecting the question: so what are we going to do?
The Obama administration, without whom no meaningful intervention is feasible, is divided and emitting conflicting signals. Nicolas Sarkozy has tried to cover his country's corrupt embrace of dictatorships in the past with the present flamboyance of giving unilateral official recognition to the rebels' transitional council. The Germans have been relatively consistent; consistent in their unwillingness to contemplate doing anything substantial to prevent Gaddafi from butchering his own people.
Some of these dilations are a legacy of the Iraq war...