Aaron David Miller: For Better or for Worse
[Aaron David Miller is a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and former advisor to Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. His forthcoming book is Can America Have Another Great President?.]
...Obama may not be Israel's best friend, but he's not self-destructive. Unlike Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, who were in love with the idea of Israel, Obama is not. He's too cool, detached, and analytical. He sees Israel primarily in the context of U.S. interests -- and less so in the context of its values. As the stronger party, he believes Israel should be much more magnanimous when it comes to the Palestinians. Moreover, he looks at Israel's current prime minister as a kind of smooth-talking con man. Clinton and Bush were truly impressed by Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon; Obama doesn't think much of Netanyahu, and it shows. If the president could find a painless way to squeeze the prime minister, he'd do it.
But there are just too many obstacles that stand in Obama's way. Yes, he is concerned about domestic politics and giving the Republicans a ready-made issue with which to hammer him on foreign policy. But far more importantly, he has learned that fighting with Israel without a good reason (for example, a breakthrough on the peace process) is a sure path to a room full of trouble.
He knows that though he can always give a speech or craft an initiative laying out a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, actually producing one requires working closely with an Israeli prime minister. There will be no immaculate conception for the two-state solution that doesn't involve negotiations and a big role for Netanyahu. And because he can't find a way to do regime change in Israel, he's stuck with the current prime minister. His Jiminy Cricket is probably telling him, "2011 isn't the year to push the Israelis; be patient and wait for a second term that might offer you a better chance for peacemaking." There's a good chance Obama will listen to that advice....
Read entire article at Foreign Policy
...Obama may not be Israel's best friend, but he's not self-destructive. Unlike Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, who were in love with the idea of Israel, Obama is not. He's too cool, detached, and analytical. He sees Israel primarily in the context of U.S. interests -- and less so in the context of its values. As the stronger party, he believes Israel should be much more magnanimous when it comes to the Palestinians. Moreover, he looks at Israel's current prime minister as a kind of smooth-talking con man. Clinton and Bush were truly impressed by Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon; Obama doesn't think much of Netanyahu, and it shows. If the president could find a painless way to squeeze the prime minister, he'd do it.
But there are just too many obstacles that stand in Obama's way. Yes, he is concerned about domestic politics and giving the Republicans a ready-made issue with which to hammer him on foreign policy. But far more importantly, he has learned that fighting with Israel without a good reason (for example, a breakthrough on the peace process) is a sure path to a room full of trouble.
He knows that though he can always give a speech or craft an initiative laying out a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, actually producing one requires working closely with an Israeli prime minister. There will be no immaculate conception for the two-state solution that doesn't involve negotiations and a big role for Netanyahu. And because he can't find a way to do regime change in Israel, he's stuck with the current prime minister. His Jiminy Cricket is probably telling him, "2011 isn't the year to push the Israelis; be patient and wait for a second term that might offer you a better chance for peacemaking." There's a good chance Obama will listen to that advice....