Olivier Roy: End of the old Arab strongman
[Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. His most recent book is "Holy Ignorance: When Religion and Culture Part Ways".]
As revolt spreads in the Middle East, the young people who launched the protest movement are being joined by ever-growing numbers of demonstrators. This prompts one to ask: where will it end and what will the geostrategic consequences be? It would be presumptuous to claim to have perfect answers now, but we can, nevertheless, begin to explore such questions.
If, in some countries, it's all or nothing (in Libya, Muammar Gaddafi will either drown the revolt in blood or he will disappear), in others we are witnessing a damage limitation exercise, in which the current regime gives the appearance of changing while attempting to keep change to a minimum. And if, for the moment, western powers are applauding the process of democratisation, they are nonetheless obsessed by the need to maintain stability - that is to say, the strategic status quo: a cold peace between Israel and the Arab world, and the attempt to build a united front in order to isolate Iran. In a number of Arab societies, conservatives of all stripes also worry about the likely direction that the democratic movement will take and are seeking compromise.
A generational conflict cuts through opposition to the various autocracies. This is especially clear in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The older generation that controls the party apparatus is still in thrall to the cult of the charismatic leader. It is socially conservative and it fears that unrest will spread. Although it accepts political pluralism, its culture is not democratic and it mistrusts freedom of expression and debate.
Could a traditionalist Muslim Brotherhood become the partner of an army looking for interlocutors that share its desire for order and its rejection of the new social movements?..
Read entire article at New Statesman (UK)
As revolt spreads in the Middle East, the young people who launched the protest movement are being joined by ever-growing numbers of demonstrators. This prompts one to ask: where will it end and what will the geostrategic consequences be? It would be presumptuous to claim to have perfect answers now, but we can, nevertheless, begin to explore such questions.
If, in some countries, it's all or nothing (in Libya, Muammar Gaddafi will either drown the revolt in blood or he will disappear), in others we are witnessing a damage limitation exercise, in which the current regime gives the appearance of changing while attempting to keep change to a minimum. And if, for the moment, western powers are applauding the process of democratisation, they are nonetheless obsessed by the need to maintain stability - that is to say, the strategic status quo: a cold peace between Israel and the Arab world, and the attempt to build a united front in order to isolate Iran. In a number of Arab societies, conservatives of all stripes also worry about the likely direction that the democratic movement will take and are seeking compromise.
A generational conflict cuts through opposition to the various autocracies. This is especially clear in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The older generation that controls the party apparatus is still in thrall to the cult of the charismatic leader. It is socially conservative and it fears that unrest will spread. Although it accepts political pluralism, its culture is not democratic and it mistrusts freedom of expression and debate.
Could a traditionalist Muslim Brotherhood become the partner of an army looking for interlocutors that share its desire for order and its rejection of the new social movements?..