Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, David Held, and Alia Brahimi: The Arab 1989?
[Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a Research Fellow at LSE Global Governance.
David Held is Graham Wallas Professor of Political Science at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Co-Director of LSE Global Governance.
Alia Brahimi is a Research Fellow at LSE Global Governance.]
An extraordinary wave of upheaval is beginning to sweep across the Arab world, with the potential to transform the political order in the Middle East. Mohamed Bouazizi’s desperate act of self-immolation galvanised a generation of marginalised youth to demand political freedom, economic opportunity and above all a sense of human dignity. Millions participated in massive demonstrations that ousted the Ben Ali kleptocracy in Tunisia and heralded the end of the Mubarak regime in Egypt. This turn of events has inspired people to mobilise against repressive autocracies across the Middle East and North Africa. Moreover, the protests directly contradict the myths long spun by these regimes that their secular strong-men are both the guarantors of stability and the only bulwark against a fanatical Islamist takeover. Men, women and children from all backgrounds, classes and levels of education cooperated in non-violent calls for change. The resulting outcome could be transformative in its impact on a regional order that has, for decades, elevated regime and western stability above the democratic and participatory desires of its inhabitants....
Can the upheaval in the Arab world be compared to the revolutions that swept Eastern Europe in 1989? Is this indeed the ‘Arab 1989’? While comparisons of events across time and place can be misleading, examining what was distinctive about the events of 1989 can provide some clues to the significance of current events. The political transformation of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania were sweeping, dramatic and unexpected. They constituted a revolutionary situation that decisively overturned seemingly immovable regimes in a matter of months. However they were also linked to slow yet significant processes and changes that gathered momentum over the preceding decade. Thus the trajectories that culminated so visibly in the fall of the Iron Curtain and the disintegration of the Soviet bloc in 1989-90 had roots stretching at least to the early 1980s.
Significant political changes were underway in Eastern Europe in the early 1980s. In Poland, the Solidarity trade union movement began in 1980 and spearheaded a mass movement for freedom and self-determination. It survived the regime’s attempted repressive crackdown in 1981 and gradually created an independent civil society sphere by fostering independent networks of information, cultural exchange and social relations. Meanwhile the late-1980s also witnessed important shifts in political emphasis in the Soviet Union itself, linked to the perestroika reform process initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev. A profound shift in strategic thinking occurred, from the Brezhnev Doctrine (protecting the ‘achievements of socialism’ by force if necessary, as in Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Poland in 1981) to the Sinatra Doctrine (tolerating nationally chosen paths – ‘Do it your way’). This had decisive consequences for the Soviet bloc as the removal of the threat of coercion and Soviet intervention in Eastern Europe accelerated centrifugal forces and eroded regimes’ ability to suppress opposition by force....
Nevertheless.... people in Eastern Europe in 1989 called for open societies, market forces, public accountability and consumer choice. The alternative to communism was very clear and involved the breaking up of old centrally-organised structures, integration with the west and the international arena, and the creation of democratic governments with market economies. Demonstrators and opposition leaders had a wholly positive view of the United States and the west, which in turn welcomed and embraced the revolutions as they unfolded. The alignment of interests between Eastern Europe and the west facilitated the political transition toward democratisation and their eventual integration into NATO and the European Union.
No such smooth conformity exists in the interactions between the advocates of change in the Arab world and the west. Relations have been strained by the events of 9/11 and their aftermath. The ‘war on terror’ involved two western military interventions into Arab and Islamic states and unleashed chaos and bloodshed in the name of stability and democracy. The crusading zeal of the George W. Bush administration and its British ally polarised feelings in the Arab world and fuelled the militant and extremist ideologies opposing them. Meanwhile the twin spectres of terrorism and the rise of political Islam have complicated the relationship between the Arab world and the international community, as well as the potential role that the west might play in supporting processes of change in the Middle East.
Read entire article at openDemocracy
David Held is Graham Wallas Professor of Political Science at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Co-Director of LSE Global Governance.
Alia Brahimi is a Research Fellow at LSE Global Governance.]
An extraordinary wave of upheaval is beginning to sweep across the Arab world, with the potential to transform the political order in the Middle East. Mohamed Bouazizi’s desperate act of self-immolation galvanised a generation of marginalised youth to demand political freedom, economic opportunity and above all a sense of human dignity. Millions participated in massive demonstrations that ousted the Ben Ali kleptocracy in Tunisia and heralded the end of the Mubarak regime in Egypt. This turn of events has inspired people to mobilise against repressive autocracies across the Middle East and North Africa. Moreover, the protests directly contradict the myths long spun by these regimes that their secular strong-men are both the guarantors of stability and the only bulwark against a fanatical Islamist takeover. Men, women and children from all backgrounds, classes and levels of education cooperated in non-violent calls for change. The resulting outcome could be transformative in its impact on a regional order that has, for decades, elevated regime and western stability above the democratic and participatory desires of its inhabitants....
Can the upheaval in the Arab world be compared to the revolutions that swept Eastern Europe in 1989? Is this indeed the ‘Arab 1989’? While comparisons of events across time and place can be misleading, examining what was distinctive about the events of 1989 can provide some clues to the significance of current events. The political transformation of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania were sweeping, dramatic and unexpected. They constituted a revolutionary situation that decisively overturned seemingly immovable regimes in a matter of months. However they were also linked to slow yet significant processes and changes that gathered momentum over the preceding decade. Thus the trajectories that culminated so visibly in the fall of the Iron Curtain and the disintegration of the Soviet bloc in 1989-90 had roots stretching at least to the early 1980s.
Significant political changes were underway in Eastern Europe in the early 1980s. In Poland, the Solidarity trade union movement began in 1980 and spearheaded a mass movement for freedom and self-determination. It survived the regime’s attempted repressive crackdown in 1981 and gradually created an independent civil society sphere by fostering independent networks of information, cultural exchange and social relations. Meanwhile the late-1980s also witnessed important shifts in political emphasis in the Soviet Union itself, linked to the perestroika reform process initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev. A profound shift in strategic thinking occurred, from the Brezhnev Doctrine (protecting the ‘achievements of socialism’ by force if necessary, as in Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Poland in 1981) to the Sinatra Doctrine (tolerating nationally chosen paths – ‘Do it your way’). This had decisive consequences for the Soviet bloc as the removal of the threat of coercion and Soviet intervention in Eastern Europe accelerated centrifugal forces and eroded regimes’ ability to suppress opposition by force....
Nevertheless.... people in Eastern Europe in 1989 called for open societies, market forces, public accountability and consumer choice. The alternative to communism was very clear and involved the breaking up of old centrally-organised structures, integration with the west and the international arena, and the creation of democratic governments with market economies. Demonstrators and opposition leaders had a wholly positive view of the United States and the west, which in turn welcomed and embraced the revolutions as they unfolded. The alignment of interests between Eastern Europe and the west facilitated the political transition toward democratisation and their eventual integration into NATO and the European Union.
No such smooth conformity exists in the interactions between the advocates of change in the Arab world and the west. Relations have been strained by the events of 9/11 and their aftermath. The ‘war on terror’ involved two western military interventions into Arab and Islamic states and unleashed chaos and bloodshed in the name of stability and democracy. The crusading zeal of the George W. Bush administration and its British ally polarised feelings in the Arab world and fuelled the militant and extremist ideologies opposing them. Meanwhile the twin spectres of terrorism and the rise of political Islam have complicated the relationship between the Arab world and the international community, as well as the potential role that the west might play in supporting processes of change in the Middle East.