Ashley Cruseturner: Incumbency Favors Obama in a Tight Race
Based primarily on the advantage of incumbency, President Obama remains a slight favorite to win a second term. Although the President endured a celebrated “shellacking” in the November midterms, the stinging repudiation has already receded from the front pages. Economic and political cycles ebb and flow. Over the course of 2010 the President appeared awkward, vulnerable, and in the midst of a steep decline in confidence. But politics is an extremely dynamic business. The humiliating defeat is not an inevitable precursor of 2012. No one with a sense of history would be surprised to find the President gaining altitude a year from now or his currently high-flying opposition suddenly in a stall.
In addition to the enormous power of the modern presidency, and the ironic vagaries of the political cycle, there are other factors that make this president a modest favorite for re-election. Even as voters soured on his job performance and register anxiety over the general direction of the country, his personal popularity remains relatively high. Seventy million Americans voted for him once already; they are personally invested in his success.
With that in mind, Americans like a good comeback. Even more than the “new kid in town who can do no wrong,” we are riveted by the battered and broken warrior once counted out, but now miraculously on the road to redemption. The President will never again enjoy the unparalleled adoration he received from the mainstream media as a fresh-faced candidate. But we can easily imagine a new storyline ubiquitously heralding a battle-hardened president, humbly triumphant, expertly equipped to conquer this moment of national uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the President faces serious obstacles....
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In addition to the enormous power of the modern presidency, and the ironic vagaries of the political cycle, there are other factors that make this president a modest favorite for re-election. Even as voters soured on his job performance and register anxiety over the general direction of the country, his personal popularity remains relatively high. Seventy million Americans voted for him once already; they are personally invested in his success.
With that in mind, Americans like a good comeback. Even more than the “new kid in town who can do no wrong,” we are riveted by the battered and broken warrior once counted out, but now miraculously on the road to redemption. The President will never again enjoy the unparalleled adoration he received from the mainstream media as a fresh-faced candidate. But we can easily imagine a new storyline ubiquitously heralding a battle-hardened president, humbly triumphant, expertly equipped to conquer this moment of national uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the President faces serious obstacles....