David C. Kang: Korea's New Cold War
[David C. Kang is professor of international relations and business and director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California. His latest book is East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (Columbia University Press, 2010).]
The South Korean military held two exercises using live ammunition in late December as a show of force and resolve in response to North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong island in November. Tensions have been high on the peninsula, and numerous commentators and policymakers have openly worried about the possibility that war could erupt at any moment. Bill Richardson, former governor of New Mexico and a frequent visitor to North Korea, called the peninsula a “tinderbox.” Many respected scholars and commentators openly worried about the possibility of war, speaking of the need for resolve and a tough stance towards the North, or breathing a sigh of relief that “North Korea blinked” and backed down.
However, despite dueling artillery barrages and the sinking of a warship, pledges of “enormous retaliation,” in-your-face joint military exercises and urgent calls for talks, the risk of all-out war on the Korean peninsula is less than it has been at anytime in the past four decades. North Korea didn’t blink, because it had no intention of actually starting a major war. Rather than signifying a new round of escalating tension between North and South Korea, the events of the past year point to something else—a new cold war between the two sides.
In fact, one of my pet peeves is the analogies we use to describe the situation between South and North Korea. We often call the situation a “powder keg” or a “tinderbox,” implying a very unstable situation in which one small spark could lead to a huge explosion. But the evidence actually leads to the opposite conclusion: we have gone sixty years without a major war, despite numerous “sparks” such as the skirmishing and shows of force that occurred over the past month. If one believes the situation is a tinderbox, the only explanation for six decades without a major war is that we have been extraordinarily lucky...
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The South Korean military held two exercises using live ammunition in late December as a show of force and resolve in response to North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong island in November. Tensions have been high on the peninsula, and numerous commentators and policymakers have openly worried about the possibility that war could erupt at any moment. Bill Richardson, former governor of New Mexico and a frequent visitor to North Korea, called the peninsula a “tinderbox.” Many respected scholars and commentators openly worried about the possibility of war, speaking of the need for resolve and a tough stance towards the North, or breathing a sigh of relief that “North Korea blinked” and backed down.
However, despite dueling artillery barrages and the sinking of a warship, pledges of “enormous retaliation,” in-your-face joint military exercises and urgent calls for talks, the risk of all-out war on the Korean peninsula is less than it has been at anytime in the past four decades. North Korea didn’t blink, because it had no intention of actually starting a major war. Rather than signifying a new round of escalating tension between North and South Korea, the events of the past year point to something else—a new cold war between the two sides.
In fact, one of my pet peeves is the analogies we use to describe the situation between South and North Korea. We often call the situation a “powder keg” or a “tinderbox,” implying a very unstable situation in which one small spark could lead to a huge explosion. But the evidence actually leads to the opposite conclusion: we have gone sixty years without a major war, despite numerous “sparks” such as the skirmishing and shows of force that occurred over the past month. If one believes the situation is a tinderbox, the only explanation for six decades without a major war is that we have been extraordinarily lucky...