Joshua Spivak: Will Obama Face a Primary Challenge in 2012?
[Joshua Spivak is a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York.]
Republicans may think that their midterm triumph bodes ill for President Obama's reelection hopes, but such beliefs are not borne out by history. The incumbent president's party typically does poorly in a midterm election. This time, however, there was an ominous hint of a potential problem for Obama. In his concession speech, the media thought that Wisconsin Sen. Russell Feingold may have been referring to a presidential bid when he said, "It's on to 2012!" Although Feingold's spokesman rejected that interpretation, a primary challenger would be the absolute worst sign for Obama for 2012....
Presidential history tells the tale. Since 1900, presidents have been remarkably successful at winning reelection. Those seeking a second term have won at more than a 2-1 clip, a marked change from the 19th century in which one-termers were the order of the day. If we count the four men who stepped up in a first term because of the death of his predecessor –— Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson — 12 presidents have won reelection, and Franklin Roosevelt won it three times. None faced serious primary challenges in his reelection campaign. In the last century, only six presidents who sought reelection lost (though in Gerard Ford's case, he sought an original election). All but Herbert Hoover faced a noteworthy primary challenge....
Read entire article at LA Times
Republicans may think that their midterm triumph bodes ill for President Obama's reelection hopes, but such beliefs are not borne out by history. The incumbent president's party typically does poorly in a midterm election. This time, however, there was an ominous hint of a potential problem for Obama. In his concession speech, the media thought that Wisconsin Sen. Russell Feingold may have been referring to a presidential bid when he said, "It's on to 2012!" Although Feingold's spokesman rejected that interpretation, a primary challenger would be the absolute worst sign for Obama for 2012....
Presidential history tells the tale. Since 1900, presidents have been remarkably successful at winning reelection. Those seeking a second term have won at more than a 2-1 clip, a marked change from the 19th century in which one-termers were the order of the day. If we count the four men who stepped up in a first term because of the death of his predecessor –— Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson — 12 presidents have won reelection, and Franklin Roosevelt won it three times. None faced serious primary challenges in his reelection campaign. In the last century, only six presidents who sought reelection lost (though in Gerard Ford's case, he sought an original election). All but Herbert Hoover faced a noteworthy primary challenge....