Doyle McManus: Obama, Midterm Elections and the 2012 Race
[Doyle McManus, Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times, has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. His weekly Op-Ed column delivers original reporting and analysis on a wide range of national issues.]
Sixteen years ago, as the summer of 1994 came to a close, then-President Clinton could see that his party's congressional campaign was in trouble. "Hillary had called our old pollster Dick Morris for his assessment," Clinton recalled in his autobiography. "Dick took a survey for us and the results were discouraging. People didn't feel their lives were improving and they were sick of all the fighting in Washington. Apparently they thought divided government would force us to work together." That November, Republicans swept Democrats from power in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years....
Democrats know they are heading for a major setback; the only question is, how big?...
"If Democrats keep control of both houses, it will be by the skin of their teeth, but they will still be held responsible by voters for the state of the country in 2012," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. "It will probably be easier for Obama to win reelection if Republicans take over the House and Senate. He'd have a Republican Congress to run against."
If that's true, the most interesting historical analogy at the moment isn't between Obama and Reagan or Obama and Carter but between Obama and Clinton, the most recent Democratic president to lose control of Congress and survive to win a second term....
Read entire article at LA Times
Sixteen years ago, as the summer of 1994 came to a close, then-President Clinton could see that his party's congressional campaign was in trouble. "Hillary had called our old pollster Dick Morris for his assessment," Clinton recalled in his autobiography. "Dick took a survey for us and the results were discouraging. People didn't feel their lives were improving and they were sick of all the fighting in Washington. Apparently they thought divided government would force us to work together." That November, Republicans swept Democrats from power in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years....
Democrats know they are heading for a major setback; the only question is, how big?...
"If Democrats keep control of both houses, it will be by the skin of their teeth, but they will still be held responsible by voters for the state of the country in 2012," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. "It will probably be easier for Obama to win reelection if Republicans take over the House and Senate. He'd have a Republican Congress to run against."
If that's true, the most interesting historical analogy at the moment isn't between Obama and Reagan or Obama and Carter but between Obama and Clinton, the most recent Democratic president to lose control of Congress and survive to win a second term....