Tom Bethell: Our One-Term President
[Tom Bethell is a senior editor of The American Spectator and author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science, The Noblest Triumph: Property and Prosperity Through the Ages, and most recently Questioning Einstein: Is Relativity Necessary? (2009).]
It's a good bet right now that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. The enthusiasm that once shielded this hyphenated American has dissipated. His supporters, although still numerous, have discovered that he lacks Bill Clinton's centrist instincts, and even his charm. The anti-Bush mania that swept the country from 2006-09 finally burned itself out.
It's always possible that the Republicans will nominate a dud. That has happened so often that it should even be considered likely. Not since 1980 has there been an outstanding GOP candidate. But at this stage it's too difficult to predict the 2012 nominee, so I'll drop that subject.
Most important from Obama's point of view is the economy. It is still in poor shape and is likely to stay that way. The unemployment picture has not brightened. In California it is 12.6 percent, while in Michigan it is 14.9 percent. In Europe, meanwhile, the economic picture ranges from uncertain to grave and I'll have more to say on that....
It's a good bet right now that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. The enthusiasm that once shielded this hyphenated American has dissipated. His supporters, although still numerous, have discovered that he lacks Bill Clinton's centrist instincts, and even his charm. The anti-Bush mania that swept the country from 2006-09 finally burned itself out.
It's always possible that the Republicans will nominate a dud. That has happened so often that it should even be considered likely. Not since 1980 has there been an outstanding GOP candidate. But at this stage it's too difficult to predict the 2012 nominee, so I'll drop that subject.
Most important from Obama's point of view is the economy. It is still in poor shape and is likely to stay that way. The unemployment picture has not brightened. In California it is 12.6 percent, while in Michigan it is 14.9 percent. In Europe, meanwhile, the economic picture ranges from uncertain to grave and I'll have more to say on that....
Here's why I think that analogy is wrong. It could even be that our situation is the opposite of what it was in 1982. The economic recession that year was to some extent the inadvertent by-product of the big Reagan tax cut of 1981. That very desirable legislation reduced the top income tax rate to 40 percent, from 70 percent, which is where it had been since the mid-1960s. The 1981 law also allowed tax brackets to be adjusted for inflation, then much higher than it is now. Nominally higher wages were moving taxpayers into higher tax brackets, producing a contraction throughout the economy....
Read entire article at American Spectator
It's a good bet right now that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. The enthusiasm that once shielded this hyphenated American has dissipated. His supporters, although still numerous, have discovered that he lacks Bill Clinton's centrist instincts, and even his charm. The anti-Bush mania that swept the country from 2006-09 finally burned itself out.
It's always possible that the Republicans will nominate a dud. That has happened so often that it should even be considered likely. Not since 1980 has there been an outstanding GOP candidate. But at this stage it's too difficult to predict the 2012 nominee, so I'll drop that subject.
Most important from Obama's point of view is the economy. It is still in poor shape and is likely to stay that way. The unemployment picture has not brightened. In California it is 12.6 percent, while in Michigan it is 14.9 percent. In Europe, meanwhile, the economic picture ranges from uncertain to grave and I'll have more to say on that....
It's a good bet right now that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. The enthusiasm that once shielded this hyphenated American has dissipated. His supporters, although still numerous, have discovered that he lacks Bill Clinton's centrist instincts, and even his charm. The anti-Bush mania that swept the country from 2006-09 finally burned itself out.
It's always possible that the Republicans will nominate a dud. That has happened so often that it should even be considered likely. Not since 1980 has there been an outstanding GOP candidate. But at this stage it's too difficult to predict the 2012 nominee, so I'll drop that subject.
Most important from Obama's point of view is the economy. It is still in poor shape and is likely to stay that way. The unemployment picture has not brightened. In California it is 12.6 percent, while in Michigan it is 14.9 percent. In Europe, meanwhile, the economic picture ranges from uncertain to grave and I'll have more to say on that....
Here's why I think that analogy is wrong. It could even be that our situation is the opposite of what it was in 1982. The economic recession that year was to some extent the inadvertent by-product of the big Reagan tax cut of 1981. That very desirable legislation reduced the top income tax rate to 40 percent, from 70 percent, which is where it had been since the mid-1960s. The 1981 law also allowed tax brackets to be adjusted for inflation, then much higher than it is now. Nominally higher wages were moving taxpayers into higher tax brackets, producing a contraction throughout the economy....