Jackson Diehl: Can Raul Castro Modernize and Stabilize Cuba?
[Jackson Diehl is a columnist for the WaPo.]
...[S]ome in and out of Cuba argue that Raúl Castro is up to something different. He understands, they say, that the Stalinist regime cannot survive in its present form, and he wants to modernize and stabilize it before he and his brother pass away. He faces stiff resistance from Fidel Castro -- who, after a four-year absence, began popping up in public within days of the first prisoner release. But Raúl, it is said, is nevertheless determined to methodically press forward with a program of change that will extend for years, rather than months.
Cardinal Ortega seems to subscribe to the rosier view. He was in Washington last week to collect an award from the Knights of Columbus; but it was his second visit in two months, and he has been meeting with officials in the Obama administration and Congress. He suggests that a big part of Raúl Castro's agenda is improving relations with the United States so that Cuba's economy can be revived by U.S. trade and investment. "He has a desire for an opening with the U.S. government," Ortega said. "He repeated to me on several occasions that he is ready to talk to the United States government directly, about every issue."...
I don't doubt the cardinal's sincerity. But I also find it hard to believe that Raúl Castro is Cuba's Mikhail Gorbachev. If anything, he resembles Yuri Andropov, one of Gorbachev's aged and ailing predecessors, who knew the Soviet system was unsustainable but lacked the will or the political clout to change it. Ortega may be right that his dialogue with Raúl Castro is something new in Cuba. But the time for real change -- and for deeper engagement by the United States -- has not yet arrived.
Read entire article at WaPo
...[S]ome in and out of Cuba argue that Raúl Castro is up to something different. He understands, they say, that the Stalinist regime cannot survive in its present form, and he wants to modernize and stabilize it before he and his brother pass away. He faces stiff resistance from Fidel Castro -- who, after a four-year absence, began popping up in public within days of the first prisoner release. But Raúl, it is said, is nevertheless determined to methodically press forward with a program of change that will extend for years, rather than months.
Cardinal Ortega seems to subscribe to the rosier view. He was in Washington last week to collect an award from the Knights of Columbus; but it was his second visit in two months, and he has been meeting with officials in the Obama administration and Congress. He suggests that a big part of Raúl Castro's agenda is improving relations with the United States so that Cuba's economy can be revived by U.S. trade and investment. "He has a desire for an opening with the U.S. government," Ortega said. "He repeated to me on several occasions that he is ready to talk to the United States government directly, about every issue."...
I don't doubt the cardinal's sincerity. But I also find it hard to believe that Raúl Castro is Cuba's Mikhail Gorbachev. If anything, he resembles Yuri Andropov, one of Gorbachev's aged and ailing predecessors, who knew the Soviet system was unsustainable but lacked the will or the political clout to change it. Ortega may be right that his dialogue with Raúl Castro is something new in Cuba. But the time for real change -- and for deeper engagement by the United States -- has not yet arrived.