David J. Kramer: U.S. Acted Too Hastily in Spy Swap
[David J. Kramer is senior trans-Atlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. During the administration of George W. Bush, he served as deputy assistant secretary of state for Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. He writes here in a personal capacity.]
Most analysts in the United States are praising U.S. President Barack Obama and the way his administration handled the spy swap. Many in Russia, by comparison, are blasting the Foreign Intelligence Service for an inept, clumsy spy operation that embarrassed their country. Both governments seem eager to put the controversy behind them as quickly as possible, but many questions remain unanswered before this episode gets relegated to the history books.
For the Obama administration, the arrests of 10 Russians accused of failure to register as foreign agents — which, to be clear, is far short of espionage — and money laundering less than 72 hours after the “cheeseburger summit” between President Dmitry Medvedev and Obama were incredibly awkward. Because the Obama administration touts the reset policy as its major foreign policy success, it felt it could not afford to let the spy story play out any longer and risk damage to the bilateral relationship. Obama, according to reports, was unhappy with the timing of the arrests, and he and his policy advisers wanted the problem to go away as quickly as possible. Hence, the spy swap of the 10 Russian agents in the United States for four Russians serving harsh prison terms for espionage.
The Kremlin also wanted to play down the incident for two main reasons: embarrassment and fear that it would weaken Obama and strengthen his critics in Congress and elsewhere, who are not ecstatic about his reset policy. Russian leaders like dealing with Obama but worry, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote in February in a cover letter accompanying the “leaked” foreign policy document, about attempts by U.S. “right-wing conservative forces, including the military, intelligence, and foreign policy establishment … [to] revert to the confrontational policy of the previous administration.” Indeed, some Russian officials and analysts — as well as 53 percent of Russians surveyed last week — questioned the timing of the U.S. law enforcement actions and suspected an anti-Russian, right-wing conspiracy from within the FBI and other security organizations.
The notion that people inside the FBI or Justice Department wanted to throw a monkey wrench into Obama’s reset policy strikes this observer as absurd. They briefed Obama on the situation June 11, more than two weeks before the arrests, which were made after concern that one or more of the accused Russian agents may have discovered that their cover had been blown.
According to media accounts, the U.S. side moved quickly in proposing the swap idea to Moscow. CIA Director Leon Panetta reportedly presented his Russian counterpart with a list of four names, and the Russian side quickly agreed. To be clear, it is very good that four Russians being held in Russian prisons were released as part of the deal. But the haste with which this whole deal was consummated has an unsettling quality to it in several respects...
Read entire article at Moscow Times
Most analysts in the United States are praising U.S. President Barack Obama and the way his administration handled the spy swap. Many in Russia, by comparison, are blasting the Foreign Intelligence Service for an inept, clumsy spy operation that embarrassed their country. Both governments seem eager to put the controversy behind them as quickly as possible, but many questions remain unanswered before this episode gets relegated to the history books.
For the Obama administration, the arrests of 10 Russians accused of failure to register as foreign agents — which, to be clear, is far short of espionage — and money laundering less than 72 hours after the “cheeseburger summit” between President Dmitry Medvedev and Obama were incredibly awkward. Because the Obama administration touts the reset policy as its major foreign policy success, it felt it could not afford to let the spy story play out any longer and risk damage to the bilateral relationship. Obama, according to reports, was unhappy with the timing of the arrests, and he and his policy advisers wanted the problem to go away as quickly as possible. Hence, the spy swap of the 10 Russian agents in the United States for four Russians serving harsh prison terms for espionage.
The Kremlin also wanted to play down the incident for two main reasons: embarrassment and fear that it would weaken Obama and strengthen his critics in Congress and elsewhere, who are not ecstatic about his reset policy. Russian leaders like dealing with Obama but worry, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote in February in a cover letter accompanying the “leaked” foreign policy document, about attempts by U.S. “right-wing conservative forces, including the military, intelligence, and foreign policy establishment … [to] revert to the confrontational policy of the previous administration.” Indeed, some Russian officials and analysts — as well as 53 percent of Russians surveyed last week — questioned the timing of the U.S. law enforcement actions and suspected an anti-Russian, right-wing conspiracy from within the FBI and other security organizations.
The notion that people inside the FBI or Justice Department wanted to throw a monkey wrench into Obama’s reset policy strikes this observer as absurd. They briefed Obama on the situation June 11, more than two weeks before the arrests, which were made after concern that one or more of the accused Russian agents may have discovered that their cover had been blown.
According to media accounts, the U.S. side moved quickly in proposing the swap idea to Moscow. CIA Director Leon Panetta reportedly presented his Russian counterpart with a list of four names, and the Russian side quickly agreed. To be clear, it is very good that four Russians being held in Russian prisons were released as part of the deal. But the haste with which this whole deal was consummated has an unsettling quality to it in several respects...