William Choong: Is North Korea's Kim Jong-il a madman or a genius?
[William Choong joined the Strategic Defence Studies Centre in March 2005.]
Some years ago, I visited an observatory near the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea. From there, one could see a massive statue of Kim Il-sung, the late North Korean leader. His right hand was stretched southward, as if seeking to entice southerners to go over to his communist utopia.
Nearby stood low concrete buildings of simple construction. According to a tour guide, they were unoccupied, but had lights that would be automatically switched on at night and off at dawn. This was to convince southerners that North Koreans lived in "bustling cities."
Kim's son, Kim Jong-il, is now in charge. Are such psychological tactics the machinations of the younger Kim, an irrational psychotic? Perhaps. With hindsight, however, the very opposite could be true.
There is method to Kim's madness. For someone who has kept a poor and hungry country going for years, developed nuclear weapons and most recently upped a finger at the ally of the world's sole superpower, his actions are anything but irrational.
Kim's genius is evident if one studies the global response to the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March. Despite a thorough investigation showing that the North Koreans are responsible, the Chinese continue to obfuscate about Pyongyang's culpability, the Americans fulminate about punishment, while the South Koreans simply meditate over what they could do.
If it acted by its gut, Seoul would retaliate swiftly for the sinking. Conventional wisdom dictates that letting a bully get away scot-free only invites further bullying. Moreover, the North has issued many threats about drowning the South in a 'sea of fire' through the years. This has generated little besides hot air and sensational headlines.
The truth, however, is that the head will rule over the heart. South Korea is not going to call North Korea's bluff and destabilise a fragile peace, if history is any guide...
Read entire article at China Post
Some years ago, I visited an observatory near the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea. From there, one could see a massive statue of Kim Il-sung, the late North Korean leader. His right hand was stretched southward, as if seeking to entice southerners to go over to his communist utopia.
Nearby stood low concrete buildings of simple construction. According to a tour guide, they were unoccupied, but had lights that would be automatically switched on at night and off at dawn. This was to convince southerners that North Koreans lived in "bustling cities."
Kim's son, Kim Jong-il, is now in charge. Are such psychological tactics the machinations of the younger Kim, an irrational psychotic? Perhaps. With hindsight, however, the very opposite could be true.
There is method to Kim's madness. For someone who has kept a poor and hungry country going for years, developed nuclear weapons and most recently upped a finger at the ally of the world's sole superpower, his actions are anything but irrational.
Kim's genius is evident if one studies the global response to the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March. Despite a thorough investigation showing that the North Koreans are responsible, the Chinese continue to obfuscate about Pyongyang's culpability, the Americans fulminate about punishment, while the South Koreans simply meditate over what they could do.
If it acted by its gut, Seoul would retaliate swiftly for the sinking. Conventional wisdom dictates that letting a bully get away scot-free only invites further bullying. Moreover, the North has issued many threats about drowning the South in a 'sea of fire' through the years. This has generated little besides hot air and sensational headlines.
The truth, however, is that the head will rule over the heart. South Korea is not going to call North Korea's bluff and destabilise a fragile peace, if history is any guide...