Michael Bohm: MAD About Nothing in Russia
[Michael Bohm is the opinion page editor of The Moscow Times.]
After the New START agreement was signed last month, limiting Russia and the United States to 1,550 warheads each, U.S. President Barack Obama said he would like to pursue further reductions in both countries’ nuclear arsenals, including tactical weapons. This has sparked a heated debate among Russian security analysts. Many conservatives are warning that further reductions would render Russia’s strategic forces ineffective against the United States and undermine the entire concept of Mutually Assured Destruction — or MAD, the bedrock of nuclear deterrence.
How far would Russia’s number of warheads have to decrease — even while maintaining numerical parity with the United States — to undermine MAD and cripple Russia’s ability to deliver a retaliatory nuclear strike against the United States?
Maxim Shevchenko, host of Channel One’s “Sudite Sami” talk show, answered the question in an interview with Molgvardia.ru: “At 1,000 warheads, we will come defenseless against the West.”
Sergei Kurginyan, president of the Moscow-based Experimental Creative Centre think tank, said on a recent “Sudite Sami” program that if Russia keeps decreasing its nuclear weapons, it could weaken its position to such a degree that the United States could “destroy us unilaterally without [Russia’s] ability to deliver a second strike.”
This fear is fueled by hawks like Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s envoy to NATO, who told RIA-Novosti on March 5 that NATO has a special division in Brussels that is “developing military —
including nuclear — plans against Russia.”
In 2006, Russia’s archconservatives received a moral boost from an unexpected source — U.S. professors Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, who in a Foreign Affairs essay wrote that MAD is coming to its end because of the United States’ overwhelming nuclear supremacy over Russia. Not surprisingly, the essay received a barrage of criticism from leading security experts dumbfounded about how the respected Foreign Affairs journal could have published such a spurious piece.
In reality, of course, MAD would not be undermined if both countries reduced their arsenals to 1,000 warheads. Nor would it be undermined if the number of Russian nuclear weapons falls significantly below that of the United States. The reason is that the definition of “nuclear parity” is much different today than it was during the Cold War, when it meant that Moscow had to have the same number of missiles and delivery vehicles as Washington. But now Russia can get away with a smaller nuclear arsenal — as long as it remains modern and mobile — and still be confident that MAD remains a viable deterrence against a nuclear first strike.
There are three main false premises driving the Chicken Little theory that MAD could be undermined in the near future, after which the United States would be tempted to launch a nuclear first strike against Russia...
Read entire article at Moscow Times
After the New START agreement was signed last month, limiting Russia and the United States to 1,550 warheads each, U.S. President Barack Obama said he would like to pursue further reductions in both countries’ nuclear arsenals, including tactical weapons. This has sparked a heated debate among Russian security analysts. Many conservatives are warning that further reductions would render Russia’s strategic forces ineffective against the United States and undermine the entire concept of Mutually Assured Destruction — or MAD, the bedrock of nuclear deterrence.
How far would Russia’s number of warheads have to decrease — even while maintaining numerical parity with the United States — to undermine MAD and cripple Russia’s ability to deliver a retaliatory nuclear strike against the United States?
Maxim Shevchenko, host of Channel One’s “Sudite Sami” talk show, answered the question in an interview with Molgvardia.ru: “At 1,000 warheads, we will come defenseless against the West.”
Sergei Kurginyan, president of the Moscow-based Experimental Creative Centre think tank, said on a recent “Sudite Sami” program that if Russia keeps decreasing its nuclear weapons, it could weaken its position to such a degree that the United States could “destroy us unilaterally without [Russia’s] ability to deliver a second strike.”
This fear is fueled by hawks like Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s envoy to NATO, who told RIA-Novosti on March 5 that NATO has a special division in Brussels that is “developing military —
including nuclear — plans against Russia.”
In 2006, Russia’s archconservatives received a moral boost from an unexpected source — U.S. professors Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, who in a Foreign Affairs essay wrote that MAD is coming to its end because of the United States’ overwhelming nuclear supremacy over Russia. Not surprisingly, the essay received a barrage of criticism from leading security experts dumbfounded about how the respected Foreign Affairs journal could have published such a spurious piece.
In reality, of course, MAD would not be undermined if both countries reduced their arsenals to 1,000 warheads. Nor would it be undermined if the number of Russian nuclear weapons falls significantly below that of the United States. The reason is that the definition of “nuclear parity” is much different today than it was during the Cold War, when it meant that Moscow had to have the same number of missiles and delivery vehicles as Washington. But now Russia can get away with a smaller nuclear arsenal — as long as it remains modern and mobile — and still be confident that MAD remains a viable deterrence against a nuclear first strike.
There are three main false premises driving the Chicken Little theory that MAD could be undermined in the near future, after which the United States would be tempted to launch a nuclear first strike against Russia...