Ian Bremmer: Dangerous North Korean Insecurity
[Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and author of “The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?”]
Following weeks of careful investigation, South Korea has publicly accused North Korea of an overt and deliberate act of war. The evidence is compelling that the North torpedoed the Cheonan, a South Korean navy ship, killing 46 sailors.
The South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, has promised to take “stern action,” but Seoul won’t risk a war it can’t win. Sanctions are possible, but they won’t impose hardships the North hasn’t seen before. Still, things may be about to change.
Pyongyang has done this sort of thing before. In the late 1960s, it attacked a South Korean warship, hijacked a South Korean plane, sent guerillas to storm the South’s presidential palace, and captured a U.S. Navy intelligence ship, the Pueblo, holding 82 hostages for nearly a year. In the mid-1980s, North Korean operatives bombed a hotel in Burma to try to assassinate South Korea’s president, and blew up a commercial airliner, killing 115 people. In 1996, a North Korean submarine crew landed on southern shores. But there has not been such a high-profile incident since....
But there is a much more serious threat now generating turmoil within North Korea. In 2002, the regime began tinkering with small-scale experiments in capitalism....
Early last year, the North Korean government moved to rein in the burgeoning black market. On Nov. 30, it abruptly ordered a currency reform to roll back private markets, target official corruption, control market activity and tackle rising inflation. The goal was to kill the capitalist Frankenstein before it grew beyond the regime’s control.
The consequences were dramatic. North Korean citizens were given one week to exchange foreign currency for North Korean coin, with a limit of the black market equivalent of about $40. The announcement triggered panic as citizens dumped currency and hoarded goods. Inflation spiked. The accumulated wealth and savings of what passes for a middle class in North Korea — merchants, local officials, military officers — evaporated....
Did North Korean torpedo the Cheonan to manufacture a military crisis that might rally angry North Koreans to their government? Maybe. Would the attack create unity within the military ranks that might help smooth the succession process when Kim Jong-il finally dies? Perhaps. China and South Korea are right to worry that a North Korean collapse would flood both countries with sick and starving refugees.
But beyond the speculation, it’s starting to look like North Korea’s insecurity might be approaching a tipping point — raising the risk of another hostile act that might send North and South Koreans forces stumbling toward a shooting war that can only end in disaster for both.
Read entire article at I.H.T.
Following weeks of careful investigation, South Korea has publicly accused North Korea of an overt and deliberate act of war. The evidence is compelling that the North torpedoed the Cheonan, a South Korean navy ship, killing 46 sailors.
The South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, has promised to take “stern action,” but Seoul won’t risk a war it can’t win. Sanctions are possible, but they won’t impose hardships the North hasn’t seen before. Still, things may be about to change.
Pyongyang has done this sort of thing before. In the late 1960s, it attacked a South Korean warship, hijacked a South Korean plane, sent guerillas to storm the South’s presidential palace, and captured a U.S. Navy intelligence ship, the Pueblo, holding 82 hostages for nearly a year. In the mid-1980s, North Korean operatives bombed a hotel in Burma to try to assassinate South Korea’s president, and blew up a commercial airliner, killing 115 people. In 1996, a North Korean submarine crew landed on southern shores. But there has not been such a high-profile incident since....
But there is a much more serious threat now generating turmoil within North Korea. In 2002, the regime began tinkering with small-scale experiments in capitalism....
Early last year, the North Korean government moved to rein in the burgeoning black market. On Nov. 30, it abruptly ordered a currency reform to roll back private markets, target official corruption, control market activity and tackle rising inflation. The goal was to kill the capitalist Frankenstein before it grew beyond the regime’s control.
The consequences were dramatic. North Korean citizens were given one week to exchange foreign currency for North Korean coin, with a limit of the black market equivalent of about $40. The announcement triggered panic as citizens dumped currency and hoarded goods. Inflation spiked. The accumulated wealth and savings of what passes for a middle class in North Korea — merchants, local officials, military officers — evaporated....
Did North Korean torpedo the Cheonan to manufacture a military crisis that might rally angry North Koreans to their government? Maybe. Would the attack create unity within the military ranks that might help smooth the succession process when Kim Jong-il finally dies? Perhaps. China and South Korea are right to worry that a North Korean collapse would flood both countries with sick and starving refugees.
But beyond the speculation, it’s starting to look like North Korea’s insecurity might be approaching a tipping point — raising the risk of another hostile act that might send North and South Koreans forces stumbling toward a shooting war that can only end in disaster for both.