Sean Trende: It's 1974 All Over Again in Pennsylvania
[Sean Trende writes for Real Clear Politics.]
History may be on the verge of repeating itself. Murtha passed away in February of this year, and a special election has been called for May 18. The Pennsylvania 12th is hardly recognizable as the one that elected Murtha in 1974—it was merged into the heavily Democratic 20th District in 2002. But nonetheless the 12th has been moving sharply toward the Republicans in recent years, along with the rest of Appalachia. After preferring Al Gore by 11 points in 2000, it went only narrowly for John Kerry in 2004. In 2008, it went for John McCain and earned the distinction of being the only district in the country to switch its vote from Democrat to Republican.
The area leans Democratic at the local level, where registered Democrats heavily outnumber registered Republicans. Nevertheless, according to polling performed by GOP strategist Gene Ulm, Obama has only a 42 percent approval rating in the district, while health care reform is opposed by 64 percent of likely voters.
Democrats nominated Murtha’s district director, Mark Critz, for the seat. Republicans nominated a businessman with no political record: Tim Burns. Polling shows a tight race, with neither candidate having held more than a 5-point lead. The National Republican Congressional Committee has committed $200,000 to the race and is already running advertisements linking Critz to Obamacare.
Although Burns is running in about as favorable an environment as one could hope for in a historically Democratic district, the election will be held on the day of the Pennsylvania primary. Given competitive races for the Democratic gubernatorial and senate nominations, turnout could be a boost for Critz....
Read entire article at Weekly Standard
History may be on the verge of repeating itself. Murtha passed away in February of this year, and a special election has been called for May 18. The Pennsylvania 12th is hardly recognizable as the one that elected Murtha in 1974—it was merged into the heavily Democratic 20th District in 2002. But nonetheless the 12th has been moving sharply toward the Republicans in recent years, along with the rest of Appalachia. After preferring Al Gore by 11 points in 2000, it went only narrowly for John Kerry in 2004. In 2008, it went for John McCain and earned the distinction of being the only district in the country to switch its vote from Democrat to Republican.
The area leans Democratic at the local level, where registered Democrats heavily outnumber registered Republicans. Nevertheless, according to polling performed by GOP strategist Gene Ulm, Obama has only a 42 percent approval rating in the district, while health care reform is opposed by 64 percent of likely voters.
Democrats nominated Murtha’s district director, Mark Critz, for the seat. Republicans nominated a businessman with no political record: Tim Burns. Polling shows a tight race, with neither candidate having held more than a 5-point lead. The National Republican Congressional Committee has committed $200,000 to the race and is already running advertisements linking Critz to Obamacare.
Although Burns is running in about as favorable an environment as one could hope for in a historically Democratic district, the election will be held on the day of the Pennsylvania primary. Given competitive races for the Democratic gubernatorial and senate nominations, turnout could be a boost for Critz....