David B. Ottaway: Egypt after Mubarak
[David B. Ottaway was the Washington Post's Cairo bureau chief from 1981-85. He recently returned from a trip to Egypt and is the author of "The Arab Tomorrow" in the current issue of the Wilson Quarterly.]
In early March, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak flew to Germany, where he underwent gallbladder surgery. That an 81-year-old man would have serious health problems was not unusual. But the fact that the intensely private Mubarak publicly announced his infirmity was so remarkable that it has led to a widespread belief in Egypt that his nearly 29-year reign is drawing to a close....
Since Islamic extremists assassinated President Anwar Sadat in 1981, Egypt has witnessed a humiliating decline in its influence in Arab politics, scholarship and the media. Even its sitcoms and soap operas, long the standard fare in Arab households, are being eclipsed by Syrian and non-Arab Turkish ones.
ElBaradei, 67, represents the best hope in a long time for Egypt to revitalize its stultifying political system, dominated for more than half a century by military figures and ubiquitous security services. The balding, bespectacled ElBaradei, like Sadat, is a Nobel Peace Prize recipient and enjoys an international stature that could propel Egypt back onto the center stage of Arab politics.
Mubarak, who barely escaped being assassinated with Sadat, has proved to be a cautious plodder with no tolerance for risk and an obsession with his regime's security and stability. These traits have kept him from tackling mounting social and economic problems, made worse by rapid population growth. Only after more than two decades in power did Mubarak allow free marketers to take control of the economy. As a result of the economic reforms directed by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, the economy saw an unprecedented 7.2% growth rate last year.
Yet the boom has seen precious little trickle-down to the 40% of the population still living on less than $2 a day. In fact, the gap between rich and poor has grown to alarming proportions, as the country's newly wealthy elite has fled the din, dirt and traffic gridlock of Cairo for American-style gated communities in the desert just outside the capital....
Read entire article at LA Times
In early March, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak flew to Germany, where he underwent gallbladder surgery. That an 81-year-old man would have serious health problems was not unusual. But the fact that the intensely private Mubarak publicly announced his infirmity was so remarkable that it has led to a widespread belief in Egypt that his nearly 29-year reign is drawing to a close....
Since Islamic extremists assassinated President Anwar Sadat in 1981, Egypt has witnessed a humiliating decline in its influence in Arab politics, scholarship and the media. Even its sitcoms and soap operas, long the standard fare in Arab households, are being eclipsed by Syrian and non-Arab Turkish ones.
ElBaradei, 67, represents the best hope in a long time for Egypt to revitalize its stultifying political system, dominated for more than half a century by military figures and ubiquitous security services. The balding, bespectacled ElBaradei, like Sadat, is a Nobel Peace Prize recipient and enjoys an international stature that could propel Egypt back onto the center stage of Arab politics.
Mubarak, who barely escaped being assassinated with Sadat, has proved to be a cautious plodder with no tolerance for risk and an obsession with his regime's security and stability. These traits have kept him from tackling mounting social and economic problems, made worse by rapid population growth. Only after more than two decades in power did Mubarak allow free marketers to take control of the economy. As a result of the economic reforms directed by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, the economy saw an unprecedented 7.2% growth rate last year.
Yet the boom has seen precious little trickle-down to the 40% of the population still living on less than $2 a day. In fact, the gap between rich and poor has grown to alarming proportions, as the country's newly wealthy elite has fled the din, dirt and traffic gridlock of Cairo for American-style gated communities in the desert just outside the capital....