Robert G. Rabil: Israel's Changing Strategic Situation
[Robert G Rabil is associate professor of middle-east politics and director of graduate studies in the political-science department at Florida Atlantic University. He is the author of Embattled Neighbors: Syria, Israel and Lebanon (Lynne Rienner, 2003) and Robert G Rabil, Syria, United States and the War on Terror in the Middle East (Praeger, 2006).]
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, standing alongside his counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, made a notable remark at a news-conference in Damascus on 25 February 2010 where the deepening of the two countries’ relations was celebrated. "We hope others will not give us lessons when it comes to our region and history...We know what is our interest...We thank them for their advice."
The reference to the Barack Obama administration's attempt to lure Syria from its alliance with Iran - reaffirmed only the day before by secretary of state Hillary Clinton at a Senate hearing - was unmistakable. For his part, Ahmadinejad addressed the backdrop of escalating rhetoric between Israel on one side and Syria and Hizbollah on the other; he warned the "Zionist regime" against any military operation, which would spell out "its end forever". Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah’s secretary-general, soon joined the two leaders in a show of solidarity, which in the Arabic world was referred to as the "nuclear meeting".
These statements and displays of solidarity should extinguish any wishful hope that Damascus is prepared to steer away from Iran in return for peace with Israel and recovery of the Golan heights. This, however, does not mean that efforts at peacemaking are stillborn. Rather, they reflect the near-completion of the Iranian strategy to realign the forces in the middle east, especially those confronting Israel. Lebanon and Syria are the main pillars of this ambitious and dangerous strategy whose real objective is the disruption of the Arab-Israeli politico-military balance in favour of an Islamist-nationalist resistance led by Iran and spearheaded in action by Hizbollah.
The Iranians appear to believe that by transforming the longstanding Arab-Israeli balance of power in the region into an asymmetrical balance of “deterrence-by-terror”, they can deepen the impotence of the Arab moderate countries of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan into a complete paralysis - and thus press their claim to lead the Muslim populations of the region. This belief carries the implicit assumption that these Arab states will avoid becoming complicit with any attempt by Washington or Jerusalem to punish Tehran (militarily or economically) for its alleged pursuit of an armed nuclear capability....
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President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, standing alongside his counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, made a notable remark at a news-conference in Damascus on 25 February 2010 where the deepening of the two countries’ relations was celebrated. "We hope others will not give us lessons when it comes to our region and history...We know what is our interest...We thank them for their advice."
The reference to the Barack Obama administration's attempt to lure Syria from its alliance with Iran - reaffirmed only the day before by secretary of state Hillary Clinton at a Senate hearing - was unmistakable. For his part, Ahmadinejad addressed the backdrop of escalating rhetoric between Israel on one side and Syria and Hizbollah on the other; he warned the "Zionist regime" against any military operation, which would spell out "its end forever". Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah’s secretary-general, soon joined the two leaders in a show of solidarity, which in the Arabic world was referred to as the "nuclear meeting".
These statements and displays of solidarity should extinguish any wishful hope that Damascus is prepared to steer away from Iran in return for peace with Israel and recovery of the Golan heights. This, however, does not mean that efforts at peacemaking are stillborn. Rather, they reflect the near-completion of the Iranian strategy to realign the forces in the middle east, especially those confronting Israel. Lebanon and Syria are the main pillars of this ambitious and dangerous strategy whose real objective is the disruption of the Arab-Israeli politico-military balance in favour of an Islamist-nationalist resistance led by Iran and spearheaded in action by Hizbollah.
The Iranians appear to believe that by transforming the longstanding Arab-Israeli balance of power in the region into an asymmetrical balance of “deterrence-by-terror”, they can deepen the impotence of the Arab moderate countries of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan into a complete paralysis - and thus press their claim to lead the Muslim populations of the region. This belief carries the implicit assumption that these Arab states will avoid becoming complicit with any attempt by Washington or Jerusalem to punish Tehran (militarily or economically) for its alleged pursuit of an armed nuclear capability....