Daniel Korski: America and Europe are Partners in Decline
[Daniel Korski is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.]
It's anti-Europe season again in the United States. Once the season opens (usually in the second year of a presidential term, when the White House most needs a scapegoat), cabinet officials and analysts start taking their shots: "Europeans don't pitch in. They don't fight enough."
Andrew Bacevich's article, "Let Europe Be Europe," is just the latest example. His argument takes on a novel form: The United States should leave a dysfunctional NATO and hand the pacifist Europeans the remains.
Bacevich's article misses a fundamental point, however, just as all of this seasonal activity does: The United States and Europe are the best allies they've each got. Yes, they have similar traditions, share values, and have a long history of cooperation behind them. But most importantly, they are on the same side of today's geopolitical dividing line: Both are declining powers.
Even if Europeans and Americans enjoy a standard of living enviable to the rest of the world, the reality of the "double decline" is unarguable. Although their respective declines may be happening at different speeds, there is no doubt the United States and Europe will continue to slip into irrelevance. Europe had one-quarter of the world's population in 1900, around 15 percent in 1950, and only 7 percent today. Its share is expected to go down to 5 percent by 2050. The European Union's GDP as a percentage of global GDP has shrunk from 28 percent in 1950 to 21 percent today and may be as little as 18 percent in 2050, according to internal EU documents. America's decline is not as steep, but the rapid rise of countries like China, India, and Brazil mean it will inevitably be pushed to the sidelines. These facts are denied today only by an odd alliance of Hollywood studios, the Republican Party, and romantic Europeans. These groups carry on as before, perpetuating blockbuster myths about the limitless power of the West....
Of course NATO has to change, and Bacevich is right to point to the alliance's many deficiencies. In particular, greater European defense investments are needed if the United States is to remain committed to the alliance. Here the United States should advance, not sound the retreat. The EU's member states (even France and Britain) have lost and will never regain the ability to finance all the necessary capabilities by themselves. Only cooperation among Europeans can eliminate the massive waste associated with the duplication of resources by EU countries and help transform Europe's armed forces into modern militaries capable of contributing to global security. The U.S. administration should publicly support such efforts.
If it does back greater EU defense cooperation, the United States is more likely to get the kind of ally it needs. Together, America and Europe can help manage and perhaps even precipitate their collective decline. Alone, however, both are under the gun.
Read entire article at Foreign Policy
It's anti-Europe season again in the United States. Once the season opens (usually in the second year of a presidential term, when the White House most needs a scapegoat), cabinet officials and analysts start taking their shots: "Europeans don't pitch in. They don't fight enough."
Andrew Bacevich's article, "Let Europe Be Europe," is just the latest example. His argument takes on a novel form: The United States should leave a dysfunctional NATO and hand the pacifist Europeans the remains.
Bacevich's article misses a fundamental point, however, just as all of this seasonal activity does: The United States and Europe are the best allies they've each got. Yes, they have similar traditions, share values, and have a long history of cooperation behind them. But most importantly, they are on the same side of today's geopolitical dividing line: Both are declining powers.
Even if Europeans and Americans enjoy a standard of living enviable to the rest of the world, the reality of the "double decline" is unarguable. Although their respective declines may be happening at different speeds, there is no doubt the United States and Europe will continue to slip into irrelevance. Europe had one-quarter of the world's population in 1900, around 15 percent in 1950, and only 7 percent today. Its share is expected to go down to 5 percent by 2050. The European Union's GDP as a percentage of global GDP has shrunk from 28 percent in 1950 to 21 percent today and may be as little as 18 percent in 2050, according to internal EU documents. America's decline is not as steep, but the rapid rise of countries like China, India, and Brazil mean it will inevitably be pushed to the sidelines. These facts are denied today only by an odd alliance of Hollywood studios, the Republican Party, and romantic Europeans. These groups carry on as before, perpetuating blockbuster myths about the limitless power of the West....
Of course NATO has to change, and Bacevich is right to point to the alliance's many deficiencies. In particular, greater European defense investments are needed if the United States is to remain committed to the alliance. Here the United States should advance, not sound the retreat. The EU's member states (even France and Britain) have lost and will never regain the ability to finance all the necessary capabilities by themselves. Only cooperation among Europeans can eliminate the massive waste associated with the duplication of resources by EU countries and help transform Europe's armed forces into modern militaries capable of contributing to global security. The U.S. administration should publicly support such efforts.
If it does back greater EU defense cooperation, the United States is more likely to get the kind of ally it needs. Together, America and Europe can help manage and perhaps even precipitate their collective decline. Alone, however, both are under the gun.