With support from the University of Richmond

History News Network puts current events into historical perspective. Subscribe to our newsletter for new perspectives on the ways history continues to resonate in the present. Explore our archive of thousands of original op-eds and curated stories from around the web. Join us to learn more about the past, now.

Mario Canseco: History Repeats Itself as Obama Faces Slump Similar to Carter's

[Mario Canseco is Vice-president, Public Affairs, at Vancouver-based global public opinion firm Angus Reid Strategies.]

A year has passed since Barack Obama became the first African-American president in the history of the United States. His supporters point to several feats, such as the decision to tackle health care reform, as proof that Obama is on the right course. His detractors complain about a series of broken promises, including the delay in closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, to sustain the hypothesis that Obama was not ready for the top job.

In 2008, Obama's message of change resonated across the country, assisted by the strong feelings half of the electorate maintained against outgoing head of state George W. Bush, and aided by the lacklustre Republican campaign featuring John McCain and Sarah Palin. Like Carter, Obama is now facing an incredulous public. Carter arrived to the White House in January 1977, riding the anti-corruption wave and with an approval rating of 71 per cent. One year later, his numbers had fallen to 52 per cent.

For Obama, the situation is similar. He began with the support of 64 per cent of Americans shortly after taking office. This month, Obama has dropped to 47 per cent. He readily acknowledged in his nationally televised speech that, for some Americans, "change has not come fast enough."

The skepticism is beginning to show in the way Americans relate to their president. One year after taking office, Obama is no longer a shoo-in for 2012. Only 30 per cent of Americans are ready to vote for him again....

After his first year as president, Carter's approval never reached the 60 per cent plateau again. In mid-1979, Carter went on national television and delivered a speech where optimism appeared to be all but forgotten: "The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America," Carter said. It was too late to ask Americans to have conviction. The incumbent president, debilitated by Ted Kennedy's challenge for the Democratic nomination and vilified on foreign policy, ended up losing the 1980 election to Republican Ronald Reagan....

Unlike Carter, Obama chose his first state of the union to exhibit the anger in the land. He later told Americans what they should expect to have a year from now: financial reform, less partisan bickering and more jobs. Passing two out of these three tests would practically guarantee his approval rating returning to the mid-60s, and make the idea of a two-term presidency more appetizing for a majority of Americans.
Read entire article at Vancouver Sun