Andrew Kohut, Jodie T. Allen, and Richard Auxier: It's All About Jobs, Except When It's Not

As the Obama administration redoubles its effort to communicate its concerns about unemployment in the face of sagging approval ratings, a look at the connection between the rise and fall of joblessness and the political fortunes of past presidents in the modern era is instructive. Recent history shows that the public response to all presidents has been shaped to some degree by rising or falling unemployment. However, only Ronald Reagan's ratings in his first term have borne as close a connection as have Obama's to changes in the unemployment rate.

In fact, the relationship between unemployment and presidential approval varies from crystal clear to murky. Indeed since 1981 there have been a number of times when the ties between changes in joblessness rates and public judgments of the president have been weak or even indiscernible. But the link is strongest when unemployment rises precipitously. And it weakens, or even disappears entirely, when other concerns -- such as national security -- become dominant public issues....

The correlation coefficients shown in the accompanying table measure the degree to which unemployment and presidential approval and disapproval ratings varied together over the past 30 years (coefficient of 1 or -1 indicating a total positive or negative correspondence between two variables, a zero coefficient indicating no relationship). The data reveal an extremely high correlation between Ronald Reagan's approval ratings and unemployment rates during his first term -- approval falling and disapproval rising as joblessness rose -- but not during his second term. The relationships also hold for George H.W. Bush, although not nearly as strongly as for Reagan in his first term.

For both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, however, other factors clearly dominate and the correlation between unemployment and political support is weak or even non-existent. Thus far, Obama's experience looks quite similar to Reagan's in his first term in office, not surprising as both saw unemployment rise to double digits on their watch....

When Barack Obama took office, 7.6% of Americans were unemployed (nearly identical to the unemployment rate Reagan inherited some 30 years earlier). As with Reagan, a rising joblessness appears to have taken a substantial toll on the president's job approval ratings. From a post-inauguration high of 64%, Obama's approval rating fell to roughly 50% by the end of the year as unemployment rose to 10.0%.

As the past 30 years have shown, shifts in the public's judgments about presidential performance are not always the product of rising or falling unemployment rates; other factors can intervene. However, there is nothing now on the horizon that seems likely to diminish the impact that unemployment is having on views of Obama. His situation continues to parallel Reagan's, whose ratings recovered only when jobless rates began to decline.

This is not to suggest that no matter what the president does, it will have little impact on public opinion unless it moves the unemployment numbers. Yes, the public's bottom line on the Obama presidency is likely be driven by economic trends, but other factors may well influence personal confidence in the president and his administration. This, in turn, can influence how quickly and decisively public optimism returns if and when the economic outlook improves -- as well as shape the level of political backlash the president experiences while the economy remains in the dumps.