Yoram Ettinger: In contrast to Clinton's statement, demography does not threaten Israel
[Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger is a practitioner, researcher, writer and consultant on US policy in the Middle East, US-Israel relations, US politics Middle East politics and overseas investments in Israel's high tech industries.]
On November 15, 2009, former President Clinton stated in Jerusalem: "Two things remain unchanged since 1993 – geography and demographics. Palestinians have more children than Israelis can have or import."
Clinton's intentions are positive. However, he is mistaken and misleading, while trying to convince Israelis to support a policy (withdrawal to the 1967 lines), which could determine the fate of the Jewish State: Oblivion or survival.
Hawks and doves would concur that public debate is dysfunctional when employing invalid numbers in order to frighten Israel into adopting a potentially-dangerous policy. Hawks and doves are aware that demographic-fatalism erodes confidence in Israel's cause and in Israel's steadfastness. It minimizes options and produces hasty decisions concerning critical national security issues. Decisions based on erroneous assumptions yield erroneous policy. Public debate should distance itself from baseless assumptions and position itself upon well-documented data.
In contrast to Clinton's statement, Israel's Jewish demography has been enhanced since 1993. A solid and a long-term 67% Jewish majority, west of the Jordan River (without Gaza) is documented by birth, death and migration records of the Palestinian Health and Education Ministry and Election Commission, as well as Israel's Border Police (which acts like the American INS), the World Bank and the Israeli and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. In 2009, the Jewish population benefits from a substantial demographic tailwind, which could expand its majority.
And, here are the facts:
1. According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of annual Jewish births has increased by 45% from 1995 (80,400) to 2008 (117,000), in spite the cuts of child allowances – a global rarity. The number of Arab births within pre-1967 Israel has stabilized, around 39,000, during the same period.
2. The Jewish tailwind has persisted during the first eight months of 2009: 77,797 Jewish births, which amount to over 75% of total births within pre-1967 Israel, compared with 69% in 1995.
3. The significant decline in Arab fertility rate reflects a significantly improved standard of living, resulting from successful integration into Israel's infrastructures of health, education, employment, commerce, politics, media, sports, culture and the arts. The Arab-Jewish fertility gap was reduced from six births per woman in 1969 to 0.7 in 2008...
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On November 15, 2009, former President Clinton stated in Jerusalem: "Two things remain unchanged since 1993 – geography and demographics. Palestinians have more children than Israelis can have or import."
Clinton's intentions are positive. However, he is mistaken and misleading, while trying to convince Israelis to support a policy (withdrawal to the 1967 lines), which could determine the fate of the Jewish State: Oblivion or survival.
Hawks and doves would concur that public debate is dysfunctional when employing invalid numbers in order to frighten Israel into adopting a potentially-dangerous policy. Hawks and doves are aware that demographic-fatalism erodes confidence in Israel's cause and in Israel's steadfastness. It minimizes options and produces hasty decisions concerning critical national security issues. Decisions based on erroneous assumptions yield erroneous policy. Public debate should distance itself from baseless assumptions and position itself upon well-documented data.
In contrast to Clinton's statement, Israel's Jewish demography has been enhanced since 1993. A solid and a long-term 67% Jewish majority, west of the Jordan River (without Gaza) is documented by birth, death and migration records of the Palestinian Health and Education Ministry and Election Commission, as well as Israel's Border Police (which acts like the American INS), the World Bank and the Israeli and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. In 2009, the Jewish population benefits from a substantial demographic tailwind, which could expand its majority.
And, here are the facts:
1. According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of annual Jewish births has increased by 45% from 1995 (80,400) to 2008 (117,000), in spite the cuts of child allowances – a global rarity. The number of Arab births within pre-1967 Israel has stabilized, around 39,000, during the same period.
2. The Jewish tailwind has persisted during the first eight months of 2009: 77,797 Jewish births, which amount to over 75% of total births within pre-1967 Israel, compared with 69% in 1995.
3. The significant decline in Arab fertility rate reflects a significantly improved standard of living, resulting from successful integration into Israel's infrastructures of health, education, employment, commerce, politics, media, sports, culture and the arts. The Arab-Jewish fertility gap was reduced from six births per woman in 1969 to 0.7 in 2008...