Open Left: 2008 Electorate: Alternate History
[OpenLeft is a news, analysis and action website dedicated toward building a progressive governing majority in America. The three founding partners are Chris Bowers, Mike Lux, and Matt Stoller.]
(A really great look at the diverse roots of our progressive majority, and how it has been constituted by historical struggles over time. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
A (now long-ago) comment by fladem (pointing out that Obama won all the states that Lincoln won in 1860) led to this diary. What if the last election had taken place under the laws and customs that existed in most states in 1860? In other words, what if only white men could vote in 2008?
Now, that really is an alternate history question, so what we're seeing here on the left is how white men did vote in 2008, an election where everyone voted. On the right, how all those who gained voting rights after the Civil War voted - that is, non-whites and white women.
The take home message: expanding voting rights - a progressive position - resulted in the ability to elect more liberal politicians. Below, more details and what this has to do with unions.
What if?
Looking back at the history of voting rights in this country, it is not a steady progression but rather a generally bumbling path forward. I ask the question here, what if the election of 2008 had been held under the voting laws of prior times? Below, I show estimates of the percent of the 2008 electorate that would have been eligible to vote at the end of each era, and how well Obama did among those historically eligible voters (by applying the restrictions shown in italics to the 2008 electorate). These numbers are estimated from exit polls, using the income cutoff of $50,000 as a substitute for landowners. Note that the restrictions were not uniform across all states - for example, just before the Civil War, a few states did allow free black men to vote.
Colonial: Adult white protestant landowning males
12% of the current electorate, 31% Obama
To be fair, not all colonies and early states restricted voting this drastically, and laws were not always enforced. The numbers above therefore represent a minimum value, and as such, are an exaggeration.
Jeffersonian: Adult white landowning males
21% of the current electorate, 40% Obama
The newly minted constitution did away with religious requirements for voting, but the idea persisted that voters should be limited to white men with a stake in government, as represented by a certain amount of wealth, land, or the payment of taxes. Again, this was not uniform across states.
For example, between its statehood and 1807 New Jersey required only that a voter possess a small amount of cash or property, with no restrictions based on race, religion, or gender.
Jacksonian: Adult white males
32% of the current electorate, 41% Obama
The expansion of the voting universe continued on its rocky course with the elimination of property requirements in almost all states by the Civil War.
Women's Suffrage: Adult whites
69% of the current electorate, 43% Obama
Women starting gaining (or re-gaining) the right to vote starting with Wyoming in 1869 and Utah in 1870 and ending with the 19th Amendment in 1920. Now it starts to get personal: probably a fair number of us knew somebody who could not vote when she turned 21.
Civil Rights: Adults
95% of the current electorate, 52% Obama
Non-whites have been able to vote since the founding of the country in various states at various times, most notably the post-Civil War era, but it took the Voting Rights Act for non-whites to be able to vote nationwide, without massive interference, and, we assume, permanently.
Youth: Even More Adults
100% of the current electorate, 53% Obama
In 1971 the voting age was lowered, and here we are today...
Read entire article at Open Left
(A really great look at the diverse roots of our progressive majority, and how it has been constituted by historical struggles over time. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
A (now long-ago) comment by fladem (pointing out that Obama won all the states that Lincoln won in 1860) led to this diary. What if the last election had taken place under the laws and customs that existed in most states in 1860? In other words, what if only white men could vote in 2008?
Now, that really is an alternate history question, so what we're seeing here on the left is how white men did vote in 2008, an election where everyone voted. On the right, how all those who gained voting rights after the Civil War voted - that is, non-whites and white women.
The take home message: expanding voting rights - a progressive position - resulted in the ability to elect more liberal politicians. Below, more details and what this has to do with unions.
What if?
Looking back at the history of voting rights in this country, it is not a steady progression but rather a generally bumbling path forward. I ask the question here, what if the election of 2008 had been held under the voting laws of prior times? Below, I show estimates of the percent of the 2008 electorate that would have been eligible to vote at the end of each era, and how well Obama did among those historically eligible voters (by applying the restrictions shown in italics to the 2008 electorate). These numbers are estimated from exit polls, using the income cutoff of $50,000 as a substitute for landowners. Note that the restrictions were not uniform across all states - for example, just before the Civil War, a few states did allow free black men to vote.
Colonial: Adult white protestant landowning males
12% of the current electorate, 31% Obama
To be fair, not all colonies and early states restricted voting this drastically, and laws were not always enforced. The numbers above therefore represent a minimum value, and as such, are an exaggeration.
Jeffersonian: Adult white landowning males
21% of the current electorate, 40% Obama
The newly minted constitution did away with religious requirements for voting, but the idea persisted that voters should be limited to white men with a stake in government, as represented by a certain amount of wealth, land, or the payment of taxes. Again, this was not uniform across states.
For example, between its statehood and 1807 New Jersey required only that a voter possess a small amount of cash or property, with no restrictions based on race, religion, or gender.
Jacksonian: Adult white males
32% of the current electorate, 41% Obama
The expansion of the voting universe continued on its rocky course with the elimination of property requirements in almost all states by the Civil War.
Women's Suffrage: Adult whites
69% of the current electorate, 43% Obama
Women starting gaining (or re-gaining) the right to vote starting with Wyoming in 1869 and Utah in 1870 and ending with the 19th Amendment in 1920. Now it starts to get personal: probably a fair number of us knew somebody who could not vote when she turned 21.
Civil Rights: Adults
95% of the current electorate, 52% Obama
Non-whites have been able to vote since the founding of the country in various states at various times, most notably the post-Civil War era, but it took the Voting Rights Act for non-whites to be able to vote nationwide, without massive interference, and, we assume, permanently.
Youth: Even More Adults
100% of the current electorate, 53% Obama
In 1971 the voting age was lowered, and here we are today...