Rhodes Cook: Congressional Democrats: From Minority to Majority...and Back Again?
[Rhodes Cook is a senior columnist at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.]
When the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, few political pundits saw it coming. But such a prospect in 2010, particularly a GOP takeover of the House of Representatives, is already being discussed as a real prospect.
In 1994, Republicans gained more than 50 seats to win control of the House. Currently, their"magic number" stands at 41, which is the difference between their present total of 177 and the required majority of 218.
An obvious target for the GOP in fashioning a comeback would be seats that they recently held--namely, those lost in the Democratic surges of 2006 and 2008. In the last two election cycles, Democrats scored a net gain of 55 House seats--consolidating their grip in the Northeast, while expanding their beachheads in the nation's heartland. Most of their gains were made in three distinct parts of the country--the Republican-leaning South, the increasingly competitive Mountain West, and the battleground states of the industrial Midwest.
As a result, these newly minted Democratic seats are in large part in competitive, even difficult, terrain. Roughly three-fourths of the districts (42) voted Republican for president in at least one of the last two elections. Twenty-one districts voted for the GOP presidential candidate in both 2004 and 2008.
From Minority to Majority: Democratic Gain in House Seats by Region since 2004
During President George W. Bush's second term, Democrats registered a net gain of 55 House seats and vaulted into majority status in Congress' lower chamber. Although Democrats won more new seats in the party's current cornerstone, the Northeast, than any other region, more than half of their House pick-ups in 2006 and 2008 were in the South, Midwest and Mountain West--traditionally less favorable terrain for the party than the Northeast and Pacific West.
Democrats gained these seats in years where they could run with the wind at their back. The question now is: can they hold them in a year where it appears that the breezes will be blowing the opposite direction? That is the $64,000 question. Can the Democrats escape 2010 with their House majority largely intact or will they find themselves with no majority at all?
Virginia offers a trio of case studies. Democrats Gerry Connolly of suburban Northern Virginia and Glenn Nye of the Tidewater were elected in 2008 in"purple districts"--which voted for Republican George W. Bush in 2004 but switched to Democrat Barack Obama four years later.
Meanwhile, Democrat Tom Perriello was an upset winner last year in a"red district" in the interior of the Commonwealth that voted Republican in the last two presidential elections. In what was a favorable Democratic year, Connolly won by 12 percentage points, Nye by 5, and Perriello by just two-tenths of a percentage point.
Virginia in particular and the South in general could readily be the starting point for any Republican comeback in 2010. It is the one region of the country where the party still holds a majority of House seats, and is a place where the GOP has already begun repossessing lost terrain.
In 2008, Republicans won back two districts that they had lost in 2006--the Florida seat held by ethically tainted Mark Foley and the Texas seat of the footloose former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. In addition, Louisiana Republicans last fall regained the Baton Rouge-based district that they had lost in a spring special election and captured the New Orleans-based seat long held by Democrat William Jefferson, he of the $90,000 in cold, hard cash...
Read entire article at Rasmussen Reports
When the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, few political pundits saw it coming. But such a prospect in 2010, particularly a GOP takeover of the House of Representatives, is already being discussed as a real prospect.
In 1994, Republicans gained more than 50 seats to win control of the House. Currently, their"magic number" stands at 41, which is the difference between their present total of 177 and the required majority of 218.
An obvious target for the GOP in fashioning a comeback would be seats that they recently held--namely, those lost in the Democratic surges of 2006 and 2008. In the last two election cycles, Democrats scored a net gain of 55 House seats--consolidating their grip in the Northeast, while expanding their beachheads in the nation's heartland. Most of their gains were made in three distinct parts of the country--the Republican-leaning South, the increasingly competitive Mountain West, and the battleground states of the industrial Midwest.
As a result, these newly minted Democratic seats are in large part in competitive, even difficult, terrain. Roughly three-fourths of the districts (42) voted Republican for president in at least one of the last two elections. Twenty-one districts voted for the GOP presidential candidate in both 2004 and 2008.
From Minority to Majority: Democratic Gain in House Seats by Region since 2004
During President George W. Bush's second term, Democrats registered a net gain of 55 House seats and vaulted into majority status in Congress' lower chamber. Although Democrats won more new seats in the party's current cornerstone, the Northeast, than any other region, more than half of their House pick-ups in 2006 and 2008 were in the South, Midwest and Mountain West--traditionally less favorable terrain for the party than the Northeast and Pacific West.
Democrats gained these seats in years where they could run with the wind at their back. The question now is: can they hold them in a year where it appears that the breezes will be blowing the opposite direction? That is the $64,000 question. Can the Democrats escape 2010 with their House majority largely intact or will they find themselves with no majority at all?
Virginia offers a trio of case studies. Democrats Gerry Connolly of suburban Northern Virginia and Glenn Nye of the Tidewater were elected in 2008 in"purple districts"--which voted for Republican George W. Bush in 2004 but switched to Democrat Barack Obama four years later.
Meanwhile, Democrat Tom Perriello was an upset winner last year in a"red district" in the interior of the Commonwealth that voted Republican in the last two presidential elections. In what was a favorable Democratic year, Connolly won by 12 percentage points, Nye by 5, and Perriello by just two-tenths of a percentage point.
Virginia in particular and the South in general could readily be the starting point for any Republican comeback in 2010. It is the one region of the country where the party still holds a majority of House seats, and is a place where the GOP has already begun repossessing lost terrain.
In 2008, Republicans won back two districts that they had lost in 2006--the Florida seat held by ethically tainted Mark Foley and the Texas seat of the footloose former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. In addition, Louisiana Republicans last fall regained the Baton Rouge-based district that they had lost in a spring special election and captured the New Orleans-based seat long held by Democrat William Jefferson, he of the $90,000 in cold, hard cash...