Bill Whalen : Crime Makes a Comeback in California Politics
[Mr. Whalen is a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.]
There are so many politicians running for office in California with Silicon Valley roots that a Sacramento Bee reporter says next year could be the valley's political "coming out party." Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is running for U.S. Senate. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is running for governor, as are former high-tech entrepreneur and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Tom Campbell, a former congressman from the valley.
But amid the hubbub about the "new economy" coming to dominate Golden State politics, an old-fashioned issue is creeping back to the surface that none of these Republicans can afford to ignore: crime.
Consider what happened in 1994. Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, vying for re-election, was down 23 points in March. Then Melvin Carter, who had been convicted of a dozen rapes in 1982 and sentenced to 25 years in prison, was suddenly released thanks to time-off for good behavior. Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown said Carter's release was evidence Mr. Wilson was soft on crime.
The Republican counterpunch was devastating: The "good-time credits" law that let Carter out had been signed by Ms. Brown's brother, Jerry Brown, when he was governor. And it was her father, Pat Brown, who as governor appointed the judge who refused to correct a sentencing error that would have doubled Carter's punishment. Ms. Brown never recovered. She lost by 15 points.
Nearly 16 years later, the characters have changed, yet three constants remain regarding the politics of crime.
First, horrific crimes continually strike home in middle-class neighborhoods. Right now in Southern California the ongoing Station Fire has consumed more than 100,000 acres, killed at least two people—and appears to be the work of arson. The investigation could turn into a death-penalty case. In Northern California, there is the recent arrest of Phillip Craig Garrido for allegedly abducting, raping and imprisoning Jaycee Dugard for some 18 years.
The second constant: For all their progressive quirks, California voters reliably tilt to the right on crime, last year's election being no exception. Barack Obama easily carried California, with 61% of the vote. Yet 60% of Californians rejected Proposition 5, a George Soros-financed initiative that would have shortened sentences for drug felons. In November 2006, 70% of Californians voted for Proposition 83, the state's "Jessica's Law" establishing stiffer sentences and GPS tracking of registered sex offenders.
The third constant: In a "wrong track" election year, a sour electorate has little stomach for candidates who don't share their values. That was the lesson of the Wilson-Brown contest in 1994, when opinion swung nearly 40% against the liberal Democrat seen as "soft" on crime and illegal immigration.
Could history repeat itself in 2010? One opening comes courtesy of the state's fiscal mess. As part of this summer's budget deal, the legislature must cut $1.2 billion from the corrections budget to help close California's $26.3 billion deficit. Democratic lawmakers have suggested releasing up to 37,000 inmates to help ease prison-operation costs...
Read entire article at The Wall Street Journal
There are so many politicians running for office in California with Silicon Valley roots that a Sacramento Bee reporter says next year could be the valley's political "coming out party." Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is running for U.S. Senate. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is running for governor, as are former high-tech entrepreneur and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Tom Campbell, a former congressman from the valley.
But amid the hubbub about the "new economy" coming to dominate Golden State politics, an old-fashioned issue is creeping back to the surface that none of these Republicans can afford to ignore: crime.
Consider what happened in 1994. Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, vying for re-election, was down 23 points in March. Then Melvin Carter, who had been convicted of a dozen rapes in 1982 and sentenced to 25 years in prison, was suddenly released thanks to time-off for good behavior. Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown said Carter's release was evidence Mr. Wilson was soft on crime.
The Republican counterpunch was devastating: The "good-time credits" law that let Carter out had been signed by Ms. Brown's brother, Jerry Brown, when he was governor. And it was her father, Pat Brown, who as governor appointed the judge who refused to correct a sentencing error that would have doubled Carter's punishment. Ms. Brown never recovered. She lost by 15 points.
Nearly 16 years later, the characters have changed, yet three constants remain regarding the politics of crime.
First, horrific crimes continually strike home in middle-class neighborhoods. Right now in Southern California the ongoing Station Fire has consumed more than 100,000 acres, killed at least two people—and appears to be the work of arson. The investigation could turn into a death-penalty case. In Northern California, there is the recent arrest of Phillip Craig Garrido for allegedly abducting, raping and imprisoning Jaycee Dugard for some 18 years.
The second constant: For all their progressive quirks, California voters reliably tilt to the right on crime, last year's election being no exception. Barack Obama easily carried California, with 61% of the vote. Yet 60% of Californians rejected Proposition 5, a George Soros-financed initiative that would have shortened sentences for drug felons. In November 2006, 70% of Californians voted for Proposition 83, the state's "Jessica's Law" establishing stiffer sentences and GPS tracking of registered sex offenders.
The third constant: In a "wrong track" election year, a sour electorate has little stomach for candidates who don't share their values. That was the lesson of the Wilson-Brown contest in 1994, when opinion swung nearly 40% against the liberal Democrat seen as "soft" on crime and illegal immigration.
Could history repeat itself in 2010? One opening comes courtesy of the state's fiscal mess. As part of this summer's budget deal, the legislature must cut $1.2 billion from the corrections budget to help close California's $26.3 billion deficit. Democratic lawmakers have suggested releasing up to 37,000 inmates to help ease prison-operation costs...