Ronald Asmus: Europe and the Obama Bounce
[Ronald Asmus is executive director of German Marshall Fund in Brussels.]
European attitudes toward the United States have experienced up and downs during past decades — with significant drops in support during the Vietnam war, the Euromissile crisis of the early 1980s or the war in Kosovo in 1999. But never before in the history of trans-Atlantic polling have we seen the kind of plunge that took place under George W. Bush.
That drop occurred during the president’s first term and the Iraq war — and Mr. Bush never recovered. European publics had essentially made up their mind that they didn’t like the president or trust American leadership — and those views basically didn’t budge throughout his years in office. Policymakers wondered — and at times despaired — over whether America had witnessed a permanent structural shift in European attitudes or merely a cyclical pattern tied to an unpopular president.
It was thus with great anticipation that the German Marshall Fund went into the field this summer for our annual Trans-Atlantic Trends survey to test how Europeans were assessing President Obama after some six months in office. While it was hardly a secret that Mr. Obama is popular in Europe, the numbers of this year’s poll are nevertheless eye-popping.
If Mr. Bush experienced an unprecedented drop in public support, Mr. Obama has produced a bounce not seen in trans-Atlantic polling on U.S. presidents since the 1950s...
... For the moment, Mr. Obama is the most popular American president in Europe since John F. Kennedy. Many European leaders were reticent to be associated with Mr. Bush, but they are lining up to be seen with Mr. Obama. The president enjoys that bonus even though he has yet to lay out in detail his thinking on the trans-Atlantic relationship. His popularity creates political capital. But it has not by itself changed stubborn differences on key issues. If President Obama can show statesmanship and diplomacy, his popularity will remain high. Otherwise his numbers will decline, just as they have already begun to fall in the United States.
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European attitudes toward the United States have experienced up and downs during past decades — with significant drops in support during the Vietnam war, the Euromissile crisis of the early 1980s or the war in Kosovo in 1999. But never before in the history of trans-Atlantic polling have we seen the kind of plunge that took place under George W. Bush.
That drop occurred during the president’s first term and the Iraq war — and Mr. Bush never recovered. European publics had essentially made up their mind that they didn’t like the president or trust American leadership — and those views basically didn’t budge throughout his years in office. Policymakers wondered — and at times despaired — over whether America had witnessed a permanent structural shift in European attitudes or merely a cyclical pattern tied to an unpopular president.
It was thus with great anticipation that the German Marshall Fund went into the field this summer for our annual Trans-Atlantic Trends survey to test how Europeans were assessing President Obama after some six months in office. While it was hardly a secret that Mr. Obama is popular in Europe, the numbers of this year’s poll are nevertheless eye-popping.
If Mr. Bush experienced an unprecedented drop in public support, Mr. Obama has produced a bounce not seen in trans-Atlantic polling on U.S. presidents since the 1950s...
... For the moment, Mr. Obama is the most popular American president in Europe since John F. Kennedy. Many European leaders were reticent to be associated with Mr. Bush, but they are lining up to be seen with Mr. Obama. The president enjoys that bonus even though he has yet to lay out in detail his thinking on the trans-Atlantic relationship. His popularity creates political capital. But it has not by itself changed stubborn differences on key issues. If President Obama can show statesmanship and diplomacy, his popularity will remain high. Otherwise his numbers will decline, just as they have already begun to fall in the United States.