The End of the Sharon Era, A New Beginning?
As Ariel Sharon clings to his life after suffering a major stroke, commentators across the globe are busy predicting the dire consequences of his removal from the Israeli political scene for the prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Sharon wasn't perfect; far from it. In fact, he arguably has more Palestinian blood on his hand than any Israeli Prime Minister and was the primary author the post-1967 settlement project in the Occupied Territories. But at least he was willing to reach some kind of deal acceptable to a majority of Israelis, with a Palestinian leadership that few trust any longer.
Because of this, the likely end of Ariel Sharon's premiership in Israel will have a great impact on the elections due to be held in March, leading to a Likud victory under Bejamin Netanyahu instead of the victory for his new party, Kedima, that before his illness held a wide lead in the polls. But the end of the Sharon era will have little impact on the negotiations with the Palestinians.
This is because for all intents and purposes the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is over, and Israel has won, decisively. Since the beginning of the 1990s the whole point of the Oslo peace process, and then the the low intensity war that began in September 2000, have been to convince and then compel Palestinians on the street (rather than in the government) to accept the fact that not even their most minimal demands will be met in whatever agreement officially “ends” the conflict. Regardless of who has been prime minister during this period, Rabin, Peres, Netanyahu, Barak or Sharon, Israel's negotiating strategy and final positions have remained largely unchanged.
The problem through the last dozen years has thus been the growing disconnect between a Palestinian leadership whose very existence and freedom of movement has depended on gaining Palestinian acquiescence to a deal that few would accept under all but the most dire circumstances, and a people that still refuses to sign on despite a decade of largely unkept promises and violence. The fact remains, however, that for the foreseeable future no Palestinian leadership will be able to convince their people to accept what Israel is offering: a weak and disconnected “state,” bisected by settlements and Israeli-only roads, with its resources and economy remaining largely in Israel's hands, Jerusalem out of reach for most citizens, and refugees forced to return to "cantons" (too use Sharon's terminology) with barely enough room to sustain the existing population.
From Israel's perspective of “unilateral disengagement” begun by Barak and cemented by Sharon the Palestinian position is irrelevant. Israel has succeeded in crushing the al-Aqsa intifada; its withdrawal of settlers and forces from Gaza has freed up personnel, funds and political capital to continue a hard line on the issues that always mattered most to the Israeli Right and indeed, the majority of the Israeli public: 1) retaining the main West Bank settlements blocs in any final status agreement and forcing Palestinians to accept their legal transfer to Israeli sovereignty, 2) maintaining a "united" Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty, with its present borders but without offering citizenship to the over one hundred thousand Palestinian residents of the city, and 3) ensuring continued Israeli economic power in the Palestinian state that will likely be declared in some form during 2006, as well as control over its natural resources (especially water).
These positions, along with the refusal to accept any significant number of Palestinian refugees into Israel, have in fact been the Israeli red lines in negotiations with the Palestinians since the very start of the Oslo process over a dozen years ago. As important, they have now been accepted fully by the US Government, which means that no power on earth will be able to force Israel to withdraw from a single settlement, change a single line on a map, or let in a single Palestinian refugee that its government doesn't want to. As has been the case since the beginning of the Oslo process, Israel will unilaterally decide the terms of whatever agreements it signs with Palestinians, and if it decides afterwards that it doesn't like the terms, it will change them with no opposition from the US.
Therefore, no matter who is elected Prime Minister in March, Israel's negotiating positions will not change, because Israel is in a strong enough position to maintain them while Palestinians are too weak to challenge them. Yet while Israel has crushed the intifada, it has not crushed Palestinian society to the point that it will accept a political agreement based on these red lines. Therefore, we can expect that the conflict will continue to cycle between periods of violence and negotiation while Israel strengthens its "facts on the ground" and Palestinians search for new strategies to prevent Israeli red lines from becoming their realities. As for the US, it will continue to back Israel, thereby ensuring the status quo of the last five years continues for the foreseeable future.
Most troubling, if a Palestinian leadership signs onto an agreement with Israel in these circumstances, an Iraq style dynamic will likely be created, in which a government presides over a newly established state against which a large and popular insurgency will inflict significant violence, yet will remain incapable of seriously threatening the occupying power. Most Israelis, like most Americans, will remain outside the bubble of violence, and most Palestinians, like most Iraqis, will remain inside without the wherewithall either to resist or transcend their sorry situation.