If Mubarak does not get 51% in the first round, there may be need for a second round Reports The Independent. Moreover,

Internet opinion polls predict that Mr Nour and Mr Mubarak will be neck and neck in Wednesday's polling, with between 30 and 40 per cent, while some 20 per cent is expected for Noaman Gomaa of the New Wafd Party, who is seen as a Government-backed spoiler candidate to sabotage Mr Nour.

This may explain Mubarak's refusal to permit civil society oversight of the polls. He would consider the need for a second round a major humiliation. On the other hand, if he tries to steal the elections, we may be faced with another color revolution.